Wrapping Up the LSU Season and Bowl Thoughts

It has been quite a while since I last wrote on this blog. To be honest I have be spending the past three weeks doing missionary work in Santiago, Chile.

I am sorry that was a 100 percent lie. Completely and utterly made up, but for a second I had you wondering.

Alright, back to LSU football. Let us recap how the season finished. The last time we saw the LSU Tigers in Tiger Stadium they played a game against Ole Miss that had "LOSS" written all over it. I have watched LSU football since 1995, so despite my young age I still have some years under the belt. With that said, I can say there have been those games where everything has just gone against the Tigers. Every flag, every big play, everything just seemed to be going against LSU that night against Ole Miss. But the thing that was so interesting about that game was how LSU would not bow down. They hung in their and the one guy who has been more criticized than any other Tiger, Jordan Jefferson, managed to truly carry the team to a victory.

Seven times this year LSU has won by a touchdown or less. The thing so many college football analysts fail to point out about this LSU team is they have what I like to call, "four quarter grit." Even if the window is closing and things look bleak for the Tigers, this team has shown the ability to still pull out the 'W' when the odds are stacked against them. LSU has a unique reputation where they are always in a game till the end. Even during their worst games, LSU still finds themselves in line to win.

(Look at the difference between the Ole Miss and Arkansas games. In both you have games where things are not going LSU's way, yet in one LSU managed to pull it together and another they fell apart. Maybe Tiger Stadium's magic is that powerful?)

Here is the thing that needs to be taken away from LSU's 43-36 victory over Ole Miss even after the Arkansas loss. All season long we criticized Miles decision to keep Jordan Jefferson in so much of the time. I, for one, wanted Jarrett Lee to start more often and I started to really think that maybe Jefferson would never understand how to be an effective quarterback. I realize it was only one game and Ole Miss was a struggling team, but just maybe, just maybe Les Miles knew what he was doing all along. For the second half it certainly looked like Jordan Jefferson could be the type of quarterback we had dreamed of.

I am not sold on Jefferson yet, but it is interesting to look at the big picture. Only about 6 quarterbacks in Division I-A football where statistically worse than Jordan Jefferson. Even so, Miles stood by him. Never threw the towel in on the kid. He believed.

I am happy to see this for the guy. I hope it is a sign of things to come. A friend of mine ran into Jordan Jefferson not to long after he had pulled off the big win against Alabama. My friend made a couple jokes to Jefferson about the block he put on an Alabama defender on the famous 4th and 1 reverse. Though the interesting thing is my friend told me was that Jefferson shook his hand and told my friend, "Thanks man, you have no idea the things people have been telling me. It means a lot." Jefferson has a had a tough year to say the least. I hope he continues to grow.

The Ole Miss game was a bright moment for Jefferson and even to a point so was the Arkansas game, but the end of that night in Little Rock ended all too familiarly - with a loss.

Personally, I hate the Arkansas game. It is never easy playing Arkansas, even during a win. (And it does not help that the one game I watch with my family is the Arkansas game during Thanksgiving.) Including this year's 31-23 Arkansas win, the last 6 games in this series have been decided by a TOTAL of 21 points. Prior to this year's game that number was 5 games decided by 13 points. "Close game" is an understatement.

I think the reason I hate the Arkansas game so much is because when the Tigers play the Razorbacks every comprehensible things goes wrong: passes are dropped, bad snaps are abundant, the defense misses tackles and of course golden opportunities to score or get a turnover are washed away. All those things describe the 31-23 Arkansas loss.

Jefferson, though not as well as Ole Miss, did play efficient against Arkansas. He had 184 throwing (0 turnovers) and 34 yards rushing. (218 yards of total offense) But like it has been all too often this year, LSU's offense was stagnant. Down 31-20 late in the 4th quarter, LSU gets the ball at their 38 yard line. On four straight plays LSU throws the football and then for some unknown reason LSU decides (with time being a factor) to run it not once, not twice, but THREE STRAIGHT TIMES. LSU ends up getting a field goal cutting the score to 31-23 with 1:58 left.

Now realize that LSU got the ball back down 31-20 with 5:59 left, yet they still thought it was appropriate to run it three straight times. That final drive was 11 plays for 43 yards and it took 4:11 off the clock. Disgusting to say the least.

I could talk excessively about the defense's inability to tackle in yet another game or the fact that the unit made some boneheaded decisions. (The first half Hail Mary?! I may sometime understand the Law of Relativity, but I will never understand why Karnell Hatcher thought going for the knockout blow in a situation like that was appropriate. YOU DO NOT RISK THAT. And worse Hatcher knocked the daylights out of his own teammate, Morris Claibourne!) The unit has been great this year at times, but I am growing tired of not seeing Defensive Coordinator John Chavis adjust. Chavis, as it seems, likes to stick to his base defense. How the game transpires has no impact on how he plays the rest of the game.

So it seems.

Alright so LSU played in 12 games this year and won 10. Say what you would like, cut it up as much as you please, but 10-2 is pretty damn good. The three big things Les Miles needed to do this year was beat Florida, Alabama and Ole Miss. (The previous two years Miles went 0-6 against those schools.) Miles did that. The thing I was worried about after the Arkansas loss was LSU getting screwed come Bowl Selection Sunday.

I was wrong.

LSU playing Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl on the night of January 7th does not get any better. Playing in the Sugar Bowl would of been terrific, but the way things turned out LSU would of been playing Ohio State. (Sorry, been there done that.) The Cotton Bowl use to be on the same level as the Fiesta, Rose, Sugar and Orange Bowl. Over the years the Cotton Bowl lost sight of this and had far too many noon January 1st games. This year looks to change that. Playing in Jerry Jones's spaceship at night should do the trick. This year's Cotton Bowl has the potential to be a great way to end the 2010 season for the LSU Tigers.

The Aftermath of a Disgusting Display of LSU Football

It’s been two days since LSU fell to Ole Miss 25-23 in one of the most disgusting games I have seen in recent LSU history. I had to wait two days before I wrote anything about that game, after all no one wants to read a blog written entirely in CAPS lock.

But now I have to do the inevitable. I have to sort through the mess on the table that is called LSU football. The one thing that needs to be noted is my disgust in Saturday’s game does not entirely have to do with losing a game, or it being LSU’s third loss, or that it was against an arch rival, no it has to do with the manner in which LSU lost.

If LSU lost 25-23 in a hard fought game where the team lost on a 44 yard field goal to win the game I would be disappointed, but nowhere near what I, along with so many LSU fans, feel right now. In short, LSU’s team in, all facets, looked incompetent Saturday. The offense, defense, coaching and game plan where hideous to say the least. The funny thing is my dad pointed out an interesting thing during the game. This LSU team found a way to lose in the same manner the old Saints did. How many times can you remember in the past the Saints having a game wrapped up only to cough it up in the end? It was so painful to watch and by the looks of it is seems to be the new game plan LSU is now adopting.

First let’s evaluate the offense. For much of the game (especially the second half) the unit was about as efficient as Shaq at the free throw line. Quarterback Jordan Jefferson looked out of sorts. The delay of game penalties where nauseating as well as No. 9’s inability to understand that as a quarterback, eventually you have to throw the ball away. Jefferson will make three great plays in a row, followed by getting sacked after holding on the ball for three minutes, which will be proceeded by getting a delay of game penalty. I am getting used to seeing a 2nd and 5 explode into a 3rd and 14. Then again Jefferson is still a freshman quarterback and is still learning. Sure we expected him to be past these problems, but nonetheless his youth has to be taken into account. The same cannot be said for Brandon Lafell.

One of the most important aspects of a team is a quality, senior wide receiver that is, among other things, reliable. A senior wide receiver is supposed to fall into this sentence – “Geez that was a rough throw, but good thing (his name) was there or else it would have been incomplete. I’m glad he’s on our team that guy knows how to make a big play at a big moment.” In the past LSU has had numerous receivers fit this roll – Josh Reed, Dwayne Bowe, Craig Davis and Early Doucet. Now I understand not all those guys where seniors but they understood the concept that they are the No. 1 wide receiver. It is there job to make the catch regardless of the circumstances or how it was thrown. Lafells missed this. His entire career he has shown great moments of concentration, yet at the same moment his entire career he has continuously dropped big passes in key moments. Saturday’s game against Ole Miss was the most troubling. There was a stat shown during the game that said Lafell had the ball thrown to him 8 times, but only had 3 catches. Granted you can say some where Jefferson’s fault, but I know of two that hit Lafell right in his hands, only to be dropped. A potential first round draft pick, I have to scratch my head and wonder why this senior, this No.1 wide receiver is still gagging on television during a big plays. Unacceptable.

With a stagnant offense, comes a lousy game plan. Despite having Jefferson back (only 70%) the LSU offense struggled for much of night. Blame can be put on Jefferson for only so much. At the end of the day the finger has to be pointed at Gary Crowton. Formally known as The Wizard I can only help but think that nickname has washed away. Even though the running game was doing a modest job, Crowton felt inclined to pass the ball every play. At the end of the game Jefferson threw the ball 37 times! Since when has Jefferson been a gunslinger to the point he will throw the ball 37 times in a game? The answer – he’s not. I have stood by Crowton for much of the year. After the Louisiana Tech game I gave him the benefit of the doubt that it was only because Jarrett Lee was quarterback. Yet after the collapse in Oxford I can only help but really question Crowton’s scheme. If LSU’s offense is doing as poorly as it is with the talent it has then in all honesty a new offensive coordinator needs to come in. Period.

Also why, oh why, Mr. Crowton would you think it would be appropriate to call the same two-point conversion play twice? Here is my problem a) Terrence Tolliver, despite his size, has never done one of those end zone leaps. It looks good on paper, but to try something like that at that moment was not a good decision. And b) so you did the play once, why the same one after the pass interference call? This is not backyard football. You cannot run the same play on a key moment in the game. LSU was two yards away from tying the score. It just baffles me.

And yes I do realize Crowton was not the only one calling plays. We will get to the head coach sooner or later.

As much as the offense as struggled this season, the defense has always remained solid for LSU. After some early games where the unit looked out of sorts, defensive coordinator John Chavis really got things under control as the team began giving up less than 20 points a game. For the majority of Ole Miss game the unit kept the Rebels in check. They did this until the biggest drive of the game.

Ole Miss got the ball at their own 35 yard line with 12:08 left in the game. Once the Rebels kicked a field goal to go up 25-17 the drive had lasted 15 plays and 60 yards and took over 8:26! On that drive Ole Miss completed a 3rd and 2, a 3rd and 1, and a 3rd and 7. The only consolation for the drive is that LSU did stop them on 3rd and Goal to give up only a field goal.

Even after the dreadful offensive play calling, the porous offense, and the inconsistent offense, LSU still had a chance to win the game at the end. They had the ball at the Ole Miss 32 with 1:04 left. Jefferson, again, got sacked, which followed by him throwing a silly screen pass to Stevan Ridley. The play ended with 26 seconds left in the game and counting. LSU would be facing a 4th and 26 and any person with a brain bigger than a peanut would realize, "Hmm why don't I call a timeout now? I mean I don't want to get a first down and have the clock run out on me." Well, apparently the Mad Hatter did not think this. In fact the Mad Hatter let 17 seconds run off the clock before a timeout was called with 9 seconds left. And of course the 4th and 26 was converted for 42 yards. LSU ran down the field to hike the ball once more, but with only 1 second remaining the Tigers were unable to hike the ball before the game ended. As long as I live I will never be able to remotely comprehend this. You are the head coach and you somehow, someway forget to call a timeout for 17 seconds? What is going on? In all honestly if the timeout was called with 12 seconds LSU would of had a chance, but the fact that it was called at 9 is absurd.

And this is why the Tiger Nation is in an uproar. In the biggest moment of the game Les Miles pulled one of the dumbest stunts in recent football history. He basically opted for a hail mary instead of getting into field goal position. A 10 year old kid would have enough sense to call timeout. This is inexcusable. Even more startling is the fact that after Jefferson completed that pass and one second remained, Jefferson was going to spike the ball. Jefferson you can not spike the ball under one second. This is not the NBA.

After you evaluate the game as a whole and after you see how the offense, defense, game plan, and coaching all underperformed you have to ask yourself, "What does this mean for LSU football?" Honestly, I do not know. I want to say Miles will get things back on track, but all too common LSU comes out on the field, plays like garbage for 3.5 quarters and then at the end makes a run to win the game. With the talent they have that is not acceptable. For the first time in his reign at LSU I have lost faith in Miles. I have lost this because I did not see a head coach leading his team, I saw a team who's head coach was confused in the game's biggest moment. Here is an article I wrote one year ago. I stated that Miles needed to turn things around our his seat would really start to get warm. One year later LSU is better, but not by much. Put it this way - if LSU falls to Arkansas and their bowl game they will finish with the exact same record as 2008. Trust me, that is not out of the question.

Things seem to be slipping for Miles to the point an inevitable landslide might soon be taking place. How will he and his team respond? It will be interesting. One thing is for sure - if Miles has another sloppy finish to his season in 2010 there is no reason to think he will not be let go.

College Football Analysis After Week 11

With the season coming to a close the season is really taking shape as to who is really legit and who was nothing more than overhype.

24 LSU 16 Louisiana Tech

I have seen a lot of games at Tiger Stadium, but this one takes the cake as the worst game I have ever seen in person. One week after a devastating loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide, LSU came out of the gates flat. The team overlooked a pumped up Louisiana Tech team and in turn LSU was fighting for four quarters to win. Two main things stuck out about this game - Jarrett Lee and LSU's game plan.

Jarrett Lee: Last year Lee threw 16 interceptions as a freshman at quarterback. Of those 16 interceptions, 7 were returned for touchdowns. It was a horrific experience for Lee, the team, and the LSU fan base. But we were told that was water under the bridge. We were told that Lee had matured and that last year was no reason to cast him in the fire. He was a 19 year old freshman for crying out loud. If anything this Louisiana Tech game was the biggest game of his career. When the clock struck zero Lee's stats was appalling. He finished 7 of 22 for 105 yards against a 3-7 Louisiana Tech team! I never expected Lee to play lights out (he is the backup after all), but I did expect to see improvement from last year and I did expect him to show LSU that he indeed does have lots of potential for the future.

I saw neither. I saw a deer in the headlights quarterback who, outside the first couple of drives, really struggled. I really must say I was blown away on the lack of progress Lee showed on the field Saturday. He has no confidence in himself and when a play breaks down he panics. Before you know it the ball is sailing out of bounds again. Sure that's better than a pick six but there comes a certain point when you have to say, 'What are you doing?' And worse his teammates do not have confidence in him. After what seemed like the 100th overthrown ball to Brandon Lafell, Lafell ripped off his chin strap in frustration. When he does get a throw off Lee's pass seems to hang in the air for an unbelievable amount of time.

I hope Jarrett Lee has a great life and turns out to be a great father with a successful career, but I do not think (or want) him to be LSU's quarterback. He does not have it. If he truly wants to continue pursuing a career as a quarterback he needs to transfer because I honestly do not see any reason to think things will change for the better.

The second thing I wanted to talk about deals LSU's offensive game plan. In short the game plan sucked. Period. I am still baffled as to why offensive coordinator Gary Crowton called some of the plays he called. At quarterback is Jarrett Lee, a man who has no confidence in himself. After a nightmarish freshman year Lee is now terrified to throw the ball. With all that taken into account why would Crowton think the best way to beat Louisiana Tech was to throw the ball? LSU was running the ball on Tech. Senior running back Keiland Williams was having his way with the Tech defense, yet for some reason Crowton would always resort back to throwing the ball. Why? Why? Why? At the end of the day what helped LSU avoid an upset? RUNNING THE BALL. I can only hope Crowton gets things together for Ole Miss, otherwise confidence will be lost in him as well.

With all that considered I do have to give credit to the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs. Head coach Derek Dooley (former LSU special teams coach) made his players believe they could beat LSU in Tiger Stadium on Saturday night. For much of the game that dream seemed like it could really become a reality. Using a wildcat offense and a series of trick plays, Tech was able to keep the game close. I know this has been a difficult year for the Bulldogs as they are now 3-7, but rest assured Dooley is a special coach who continue to improve Tech each and every year.


55 Stanford 21 USC

Two weeks ago the USC Trojans got destroyed in Autzen Stadium to the Oregon Ducks 47-20. The game was the biggest blowout in Pete Carroll's career at USC. No way a loss could get any worse than what USC experienced that Saturday, right? Wrong. Someone forgot to tell the Stanford Cardinals they are not supposed to be fighting for the Pac-10 title. Someone forgot to tell Jim Harbaugh's crew this is a game they are supposed to lose.

Two years Stanford beat USC 24-23 in the Coliseum in arguably the biggest upset in college football history. (Stanford was a 41 point underdog.) For their homecoming game and only two weeks removed from the Oregon embarrassment it was expected that USC would rebound in a big way. Going into the fourth quarter Stanford held a narrow 28-21 lead.

But then it all collapsed. By the time the clocked ticked zero Stanford had cruised to an unheard of 55-21 victory over USC. There are several things that stick out about this game. First, where is USC's defense? Consistently, year in and year out Carroll has a team with defense, but this year the unit has looked atrocious at times. The second thing that stuck out ties in with the first. I was blown away by the success Toby Gerhart. All season Gerhart has been torturing opponents, yet in the back of my mind I felt USC would still neutralize him come Saturday.

At day's end Gerhart had 29 carries for 178 yards and 3 touchdowns. I think it's fair to say that Gerhart did whatever, whenever, against the Trojans.

Now the big question is, is this a sign for things to come for a Harbaugh-led Stanford squad or are they just this year's Ole Miss? It will be interesting to see.


45 Wisconsin 24 Michigan

Four weeks into the season and the Wolverines were 4-0. Now Rich Rod's crew stands at 5-6 with the final game in the Big House against Ohio State. So yes you read that right, in order to avoid a second consecutive losing season UM has to beat the 10th ranked team in the country. The minor defensive holes for the Wolverines have blown up as the season has progressed and in turn the Wolverine fan base has begun to show frustration with Rich Rod's job so far. Keep in mind this is only his second year, he is installing a completely new system, the defense is weak, and lastly, but most importantly there's a true freshman playing quarterback. Also keep in mind that three of the Wolverines' losses have been by an average of 3 points. This is a team that will improve in the future. Give it time.

On the other side the Wisconsin Badgers have slowly gone through this season under the radar with an impressive 8-2 record. Coming into the season Coach Bret Bielema was definitely starting to get on the hot seat, but I doubt that's the case anymore. The Badgers only two losses have been to Ohio State and Iowa. The best news they have is their top quarterback (Scott Tolzien), running back (John Clay), and wide receiver (Nick Toon) will all be back next year. Look for Wisconsin to be a dark horse sleeper for next year's Big 10 title.


24 Cincinnati 21 West Virginia

Cincy has had a pretty easy time with it's opponents this year, but things this week things changed. With 2 minutes left Cincy kicked a field goal to go up 24-14 so the final was closer than the actual outcome, but rest assured WV put up a fight. With all that said, unless Cincinnati falls flat on it's face against Illinois on November 27th, you can assume that Cincinnati will be playing at Pittsburgh December 5th in easily one of the biggest games of the year. Winner of that game will get a BCS bowl.

Currently West Virginia is 7-3, but the team still has a home match up with Pittsburgh (a team who's season they would love to ruin after what happened in 2007)and a road game against Rutgers. If the Mountaineers dropped those final two the team will finish 7-5 and things will start to get a little uneasy in Morgantown with how Bill Stewart's tenure has gone. Yes, going 9-4 last year and 7-5 this year is not bad, but keep in mind this program was flying high when Rich Rod was in town. Fans expect more.


27 Pittsburgh 22 Notre Dame

Charlie Weis you are going to be fired. With 12:44 left in the game ND was down 27-9. The team was able to rally, but again Weis's team fell to a ranked squad. And to top it off ND (already with 4 losses) still has to play Connecticut and Stanford. On paper and from what we have seen I can not see Notre Dame beating Stanford so you are looking at another 7-5 season. That's not Notre Dame. Maybe at Temple or Baylor, but not Notre Dame. Weis has been given enough time and still his teams are, well, average.

Also, I have to say I'm awfully impressed with how well Pittsburgh is doing. In particular Coach Dave Wannstedt who has this Panther team two wins away from a BCS bowl. During his first season Wannstedt went 5-6, the following year he went 6-6, and then the next year in 2007 his team went 5-7. Looking at his first 3 years at Pitt (16-19) it makes you think why Wannstedt was not let go. I honestly think the thing that really factored into him coming back last year was the monumental upset Pittsburgh pulled over West Virginia in 2007. The Mountaineers were one win away from going to the BCS National Championship. All they had to do was beat a 4-7 Pitt team that was a 24 point underdog. Pitt won 13-9 and since that game both programs have been going in opposite directions. That win has catapulted Pitt into believing that they can compete with the nation's best.


24 Florida 14 South Carolina

Florida continued its winning streak to 20 games, but at the same time the team was not over the top impressive. A lot of that has to do with great South Carolina defense. A couple things stood out to me. First, with this loss Spurrier is 34-27 at South Carolina. The Ole Ball Coach really is not much of a coach anymore as his teams rarely finish the season strong. The Gamecocks do consistently play tough, but in the end they lose. Their biggest win in Spurrier's tenure was a six point win over a then top 5 ranked Ole Miss team. Would South Carolina ever think about firing Spurrier? Each year it's the same story. Start strong, finish awful.

Florida has the regular season wrapped up. They play Florida International followed by Florida State, so you can pretty much start talking about the SEC Championship Game. That is a tough game to say the least on who I think will prevail. On one hand I say, 'This is Florida and Tim Tebow. The quarterback advantage for Florida is the clear reason the Gators will win again.' But on the other side I have to think, 'Alabama lost last year and has spent an entire year anxiously awaiting a rematch. Rarely do teams beat Nick Saban twice with the same game plan. If Florida wants any shot of beating Alabama they have to change their game plan.' Because of the events that happened late in the fourth quarter in the LSU/Alabama game I will not be watching the SEC Championship Game, but I can pretty much guarantee it will be a defensive struggle. I will take Florida 24-16.


42 Ole Miss 17 Tennessee

Just when you thought Ole Miss's season was going to completely unravel the team came out and beat up a good Tennessee defense. Dexter McCluster ran for 282 yards and 4 touchdowns! REREAD THAT THREE MORE TIMES! This is not Madden, this is real life! Wow! Despite a season that has had some major disappointments, the Rebels still have a very good chance of finishing the season strong. Their ability to score points against a good defense shows that this team can take down LSU this Saturday. Put it this way - if Ole Miss beats LSU and Mississippi State, and wins their bowl game then you have yourself a 10-3 season. Not bad at all.

With that loss the Vols slip to 5-5. Their two remaining games are against Vandy and Kentucky. If Kiffin's crew finishes strong they will get a bowl. Kiffin has this program going in the right direction. Think of it like this - the Vols do not have the top notch athletes they use too, yet they hung with Florida and almost beat Alabama. Once they get the athletes things will really change. The future is bright.

College Football Analysis After Week 9

Not sure anyone can do a more lousy job than me on getting my thoughts up. It is already Friday afternoon for crying out loud!

41 Florida 17 Georgia

Honestly, I really thought UGA was going to come out pumped to play. After all UF hasn't looked that great the last two games. I expected UGA to come out motivated to punish UF for last year's 49-10 slaughter, but that never happened. UF looked like it's old self and Joe Cox was self-destructing all afternoon. His turnovers are about as appalling as Terrelle Pryor's. First play of the second half is an interception? Just like that it was 31-10. It was funny to see Tebow plowing through the line. I guess that whole concussion safety thing was thrown out the window. Right now UF looks bound for the Rose Bowl. I do not see any potential trip ups whatsoever. One of the more interesting things to note is the growing angst towards Georgia coach Mark Richt. It's amazing how quickly someones successes can be thrown under the table the instant someone says, "Hey he doesn't have a National Championship yet!" Now granted he doesn't have a title and I'm sure he wants one, but for crying out loud keep in mind he has been very successful. Give it time UGA fans.

47 Oregon 20 USC

Wow. The USC Trojans do lose games, but no one beats them by 4 touchdowns. That was until Saturday. The Ducks flat out embarrassed USC in a way no one has done since Carroll took control of the program. Oregon clearly showed they are a team worthy of playing in the BCS National Championship. The offense is explosive and the defense is suffocating. Now granted I realize they are far back in the BCS, but there is still a lot of season left. Biggest thing is that Duck offense. It is so unique and dangerous that the defenses are constantly having to gamble on whether or not it's a pass or rush. I have to give Coach Chip Kelly a lot of credit for turning things around after getting pounded 19-8 at Boise State.

42 LSU 0 Tulane

In the last two weeks LSU's offense has looked the way the fans have desired all season. The biggest thing I noticed was LSU's ability to get seven points and not the mere three they were getting earlier in the year. Another thing was the LSU defense. In the game Kelvin Sheppard had 13 tackles. That is 39 tackles in three games! LSU's defense has slowly snuck up in the stats. Not only is the secondary shut down quality but the linebackers are everywhere. Yes, the defensive line is a work in progress, but Chavis combats that with blitzes from all-hitman Harry Coleman.


33 Auburn 20 Ole Miss

I do not know what to think of Ole Miss and I do not know what to think of Auburn. Auburn was on a three game losing streak that would surely extend to four. Well for some reason the War Eagles weren't having that. QB Chris Todd looked like his old self and the Auburn running game got moving as well. On the other side Jevan Snead again disappointed the nation. It amazes how much this big time pro prospect has struggled this year. Ole Miss already has three losses and the season is not over. They still have the Egg Bowl versus Mississippi State who by all means has not been a pushover. Is opposition against Coach Houston Nutt forming in Oxford? Hmm.


I am well aware this post stinks, but keep in mind I did this in twenty minutes. I will do a better job in the future with a) making my posts longer and b) getting them out in a reasonable amount of time. Lots of big games this weekend. Seasons will be made or lost come Saturday...

2009 College Football Bold Predictions

This is it. After what has seemed like 10,000 days of waiting college football is back. Thursday night meaningful games will finally kick off, but before that day comes let me lay out my predictions for the season.

Florida WILL go undefeated and they WILL win the National Championship.
(I keep looking and when I really evaluate this team I do not see them tripping up once.)

By the end of October the California Bears WILL no longer be in the dark horse National Championship talk.
(I have been hearing all summer how this Cal team is going to make some noise. I do not see this year being any different from the other years we, the fans, were lead to believe this.)

Ohio State WILL beat USC on September 12th.
(Matt Barkley is 18 years old. He turns 19 on September 8th. He has never started a college game. I do not think in his second game of the year he will be able to pull out a victory in front of 100,000+ screaming fans. I do not care how good he was in high school and I'm sure he will have a fine college career. But at the end of the day I do not think with such little experience he will be able to beat the Buckeyes.)

Baylor behind the nation's best kept secret, quarterback Robert Griffin, will pull off a big upset this year, but Baylor will not going bowling this year.

Miami Florida's head coach Randy Shannon will be fired at the end of the year as his team will again under perform. The Hurricanes will finish with 5 losses.

Michigan will not lose more than 4 games.

Once again Texas will just sneak by Oklahoma State. Much like the Fiesta Bowl, Colt McCoy will lead Texas for a late score at the end of the game to beat the Cowboys.

Oklahoma beats Texas. Oklahoma loses two games. Texas goes to the Big 12 Championship and then the National Championship.

Notre Dame will be getting a BCS bowl after they finish the season with only 2 losses. And yes they will lose to USC again.

Alabama will lose at the most 2 games during the regular season. Ole Miss will lose only one when the Bengals come into town. Ole Miss will go to the SEC Championship Game.

LSU will have their swagger back this year, but a very hard schedule will keep them out of the SEC Championship Game.

Rutgers will not win the Big East. Pittsburgh will take the conference and the coveted BCS bowl bid.

West Virginia will have 5 losses this year. Speculation will begin about whether Bill Stewart is the right guy for the job.

Alabama will beat Virginia Tech 31-14. Tech has a defense, but the offense will not be able to do anything against Alabama's defense.

Texas A&M has another losing season and surprisingly gives Mike Sherman one more year.

Dan LeFevour. He's what some would call the "poor man's Tim Tebow." He will lead Central Michigan to the MAC Title and to go along with that Houston will win the Conference-USA.

Sorry Archie Griffin, but you no longer have the record by yourself. Tim Tebow will win the Heisman trophy.

Oregon looked pretty impressive in their bowl victory against Oklahoma State so I will have to take the Ducks. Look for Oregon to end Boise State's 49-game regular-season home winning streak. It will be decided by one score.

Well that's all I have. In all honesty I'm the "Jeff George" of making predictions. Average, but nothing more.

Geaux Tigers!







Email me MM

The Ultimate 2009 SEC West Breakdown

Earlier this summer I posted my thoughts on the SEC East. I stated I would give my analysis for the SEC West. Well, finally I have an SEC West prediction for the 2009 season, but this time things are a bit different. Instead of me breaking down the SEC West I let my dad spread his thoughts.

Enjoy.

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I need a fix. It has been seven months since I’ve watched a live LSU football game and my patience is waning. National recruiting day anticipation and the post signing euphoria carried me through February and into early March. March Madness was good until LSU drew North Carolina in the second round. College baseball season was great – hey, we won a National Championship, but that was over in late June. The final blow was discovering that someone (hopefully inadvertently) erased the Georgia Tech Game on the DVR. I am left with my imagination.

Lately, my only relief comes from listening to Bill King of Rivals Radio analyze who has the best three deep roster. Beside that bit of fascinating analysis, we get an hourly call from an Auburn or Tennessee hopeful asking Bill to confirm that they could really be better than all of the prognosticators are saying. “We had a great spring, our conditioning is going well and our coaches have great discipline – can we win 8 or 9 games?” Nope, sorry boys, you are in the darkness. Just about every fan base in the NCAA has experienced it at some point, certainly we have at LSU. You are going to be thrown into the pits, forced to grind and gnash your teeth.

Twenty-four days and a wake up and it will be over for me. LSU kicks off on the West Coast with Washington, Ty Willingham’s latest debacle. Meanwhile, I have decided to do a bit of prognosticating myself. Here is my shot at handicapping the SEC West. Being an engineer, I decided to take an analytical approach. Not that it will make my projections any more accurate as the one thing I have learned over the years is that predicting sporting outcomes is a crapshoot. You throw it down and walk away. Here it goes.

I have broken my analysis into five categories, each weighted relatively evenly. This includes the

1. athletic quality of the roster using historical recruiting as the benchmark,

2. quality of the coaching staff,

3. returning players in leadership positions,

4. key difference makers or star quality athletes,

5. and finally -non-measureables (things I just have a feel for).

Strength of Recruiting

There are always exceptions, but you can get a pretty good feel for the quality of school’s roster by simply analyzing their historical recruiting success. If you look at the top schools in the country, determined by ranking services such as ESPN/USA Today, you will find a fairly close correlation with the school’s success; and the recent recruiting success as determined by ranking services. It is that simple. Sure, the recruiting rankings often miss on perspective athletes and they often under or over estimate a team’s overall position, but they are generally very closely aligned to how a team performs and finishes. For purposes of this evaluation, I just picked one service and looked at the rankings over the past five years. This is what I found utilizing the Rivals website rankings from 2004 until 2009:

Rivals Recruiting Ranking by Year

2004: Alabama (15), LSU (2), Auburn (21), Ole Miss (30), Arkansas (22), Miss. State (62)

2005: Alabama (18), LSU (22), Auburn (13), Ole Miss (30), Arkansas (24), Miss. State (33)

2006: Alabama (11), LSU (7), Auburn (10), Ole Miss (16), Arkansas (26), Miss. State (44)

2007: Alabama (10), LSU (4), Auburn (7), Ole Miss (27), Arkansas (31), Miss. State (39)

2008: Alabama (1), LSU (11), Auburn (20), Ole Miss (29), Arkansas (36), Miss. State (44)

2009: Alabama (1), LSU (2), Auburn (19), Ole Miss (18), Arkansas (16), Miss. State (25)

Based upon this analysis, you would have to say that Alabama and LSU likely have the most athletic rosters. Auburn should be third followed by Ole Miss and Arkansas in a coin toss and Mississippi State bringing up the rear. I think this is fairly accurate, but I believe Ole Miss is understated in their positional rankings. Either last year was a total anomaly or they have recruited far better than Rivals predicted because they appeared to be as athletic as any team they faced in 2008, and then some.

Quality of Coaching Staff

From my standpoint, ranking the coaching staffs is really subjective. I don’t have access to anything other than my TV Set and the Internet. I don’t get to attend practices, talk to people who are in and around these campuses, so I am really going by what I read and personal observation. There are many that feel Saban is the best coach in the SEC West, and perhaps the country. Bobby Petrino is looked upon as an offensive guru. Neither one of them did too well when they ventured into the NFL so perhaps they are not what they are made up to be. Houston Nutt has a great reputation for doing more with less. Les Miles is not viewed positively by the press and the other two guys are not even on the radar yet.

So I am left with my own book of thoughts. In my opinion, I think Saban is a great program manager and perhaps excels above everyone else when it comes to transformational leadership. He is a Lee Iacocca type when it comes to building and changing culture, but he is prone to error like all humans. He pulled a few stinkers in Baton Rouge in his previous gig and I am guessing those same mishaps are in store for the Bama Nation. Houston Nutt has never been to the mountain. It seems to me he has not proven anything yet other than he is a smart guy that can motivate a team through stretches. Miles did a great job in his first three years in Baton Rouge, but last year was not his best effort, for whatever reason.

From my limited view, I just don’t see any differentiation here. Any one of these four coaches can do it given the right set of circumstances and players. I am calling this a wash.

Returning Players in Leadership Roles

Senior leadership is always a huge factor in success. No one wins without chemistry and chemistry usually starts with your seniors. No senior leadership inevitably leads to under performance and high quality leadership results in the opposite.
Last year’s LSU team, from the outside at least, seemed to be lacking in this area. We had some great players and good guys, but I don’t think they established the culture and mindset that was needed for success. This year’s seniors may be exceptional. Getting Ciron Black, Charles Scott and Brandon Lafell to postpone the NFL was obviously a boost. These are the guys that are going to keep the team together. Alabama lost a few great leaders, guys that made a difference last year. Who knows if they can be replaced? Ole Miss has most of their roster back, so I would have to assume they will be okay in that category.

My call here goes with LSU. I know I am a homer, but I think that guys like Ciron Black just don’t come along very often.

Difference Makers in Key Roles

As was reinforced to the LSU faithful last year – no quarterback, no team. It is that simple. You don’t have to be an all American, but you have to show up and make the plays when it counts. John Parker Wilson was seemingly nothing special athletically, but that guy made all of the plays throughout the year. Javon Snead is just flat out good. He made a couple of throws in the LSU game that were world class, and he showed up when the bell rang.

How important was Alabama’s nose tackle. Nobody could move that guy off his line and hence, nobody could consistently run on the Tide. Take away Cody and Alabama is a different team.

Both Cody and Snead are back, but new play makers will emerge in the SEC. Whatever team has the most playmakers will have an advantage. Based upon what I saw last year, I give this edge to Ole Miss and Snead (along with Hardy and the rest of that roster). Alabama and LSU should be okay and Arkansas is somewhat unknown. Ole Miss gets the edge mainly based on Snead’s success last year.

Non-Measurables (gut feel)

Now this is where I normally get into trouble. Non-measurables include emotions. Emotions lead to collective brain farts, like the Auburn guy on Rivals Radio that is trying to convince himself that by working hard and having better team discipline the Tigers/War Chickens/Plainsmen will just be good enough to win. Sorry – stay in your hole.

Here is the thumb nail summary:

Everything seemed to fall in place for Alabama last year. That doesn’t normally happen two years in a row. They will have to earn it this year.

LSU had the opposite type of year. Nothing seemed to go right, so you would think that we are due for a few breaks. Personally, I think we used them all up in 2007; we can’t count on the football Gods this year. Also, our schedule is brutal. If we didn’t have to play Bama, Ole Miss and Georgia on the road and host a Florida team that Alabama and Ole Miss dodge, we might have a chance. Alas, that is too much to overcome.

Arkansas is the team that might just sneak up and steal the whole thing. Mallet can throw the ball and they have a bunch of players coming back. But there is an old saying; everything back from nothing is still nothing.

So that leaves Ole Miss. Everyone, including myself, expects them to get caught reading their clippings and gag on themselves. But I got a feeling (emotions) that this is going to be Nutts year to show the world just how good of coach he is.

My call:

1. Ole Miss
2. LSU
3. Alabama
4. Arkansas
5. Auburn
6. Miss State