College Football Analysis After Week 11

With the season coming to a close the season is really taking shape as to who is really legit and who was nothing more than overhype.

24 LSU 16 Louisiana Tech

I have seen a lot of games at Tiger Stadium, but this one takes the cake as the worst game I have ever seen in person. One week after a devastating loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide, LSU came out of the gates flat. The team overlooked a pumped up Louisiana Tech team and in turn LSU was fighting for four quarters to win. Two main things stuck out about this game - Jarrett Lee and LSU's game plan.

Jarrett Lee: Last year Lee threw 16 interceptions as a freshman at quarterback. Of those 16 interceptions, 7 were returned for touchdowns. It was a horrific experience for Lee, the team, and the LSU fan base. But we were told that was water under the bridge. We were told that Lee had matured and that last year was no reason to cast him in the fire. He was a 19 year old freshman for crying out loud. If anything this Louisiana Tech game was the biggest game of his career. When the clock struck zero Lee's stats was appalling. He finished 7 of 22 for 105 yards against a 3-7 Louisiana Tech team! I never expected Lee to play lights out (he is the backup after all), but I did expect to see improvement from last year and I did expect him to show LSU that he indeed does have lots of potential for the future.

I saw neither. I saw a deer in the headlights quarterback who, outside the first couple of drives, really struggled. I really must say I was blown away on the lack of progress Lee showed on the field Saturday. He has no confidence in himself and when a play breaks down he panics. Before you know it the ball is sailing out of bounds again. Sure that's better than a pick six but there comes a certain point when you have to say, 'What are you doing?' And worse his teammates do not have confidence in him. After what seemed like the 100th overthrown ball to Brandon Lafell, Lafell ripped off his chin strap in frustration. When he does get a throw off Lee's pass seems to hang in the air for an unbelievable amount of time.

I hope Jarrett Lee has a great life and turns out to be a great father with a successful career, but I do not think (or want) him to be LSU's quarterback. He does not have it. If he truly wants to continue pursuing a career as a quarterback he needs to transfer because I honestly do not see any reason to think things will change for the better.

The second thing I wanted to talk about deals LSU's offensive game plan. In short the game plan sucked. Period. I am still baffled as to why offensive coordinator Gary Crowton called some of the plays he called. At quarterback is Jarrett Lee, a man who has no confidence in himself. After a nightmarish freshman year Lee is now terrified to throw the ball. With all that taken into account why would Crowton think the best way to beat Louisiana Tech was to throw the ball? LSU was running the ball on Tech. Senior running back Keiland Williams was having his way with the Tech defense, yet for some reason Crowton would always resort back to throwing the ball. Why? Why? Why? At the end of the day what helped LSU avoid an upset? RUNNING THE BALL. I can only hope Crowton gets things together for Ole Miss, otherwise confidence will be lost in him as well.

With all that considered I do have to give credit to the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs. Head coach Derek Dooley (former LSU special teams coach) made his players believe they could beat LSU in Tiger Stadium on Saturday night. For much of the game that dream seemed like it could really become a reality. Using a wildcat offense and a series of trick plays, Tech was able to keep the game close. I know this has been a difficult year for the Bulldogs as they are now 3-7, but rest assured Dooley is a special coach who continue to improve Tech each and every year.


55 Stanford 21 USC

Two weeks ago the USC Trojans got destroyed in Autzen Stadium to the Oregon Ducks 47-20. The game was the biggest blowout in Pete Carroll's career at USC. No way a loss could get any worse than what USC experienced that Saturday, right? Wrong. Someone forgot to tell the Stanford Cardinals they are not supposed to be fighting for the Pac-10 title. Someone forgot to tell Jim Harbaugh's crew this is a game they are supposed to lose.

Two years Stanford beat USC 24-23 in the Coliseum in arguably the biggest upset in college football history. (Stanford was a 41 point underdog.) For their homecoming game and only two weeks removed from the Oregon embarrassment it was expected that USC would rebound in a big way. Going into the fourth quarter Stanford held a narrow 28-21 lead.

But then it all collapsed. By the time the clocked ticked zero Stanford had cruised to an unheard of 55-21 victory over USC. There are several things that stick out about this game. First, where is USC's defense? Consistently, year in and year out Carroll has a team with defense, but this year the unit has looked atrocious at times. The second thing that stuck out ties in with the first. I was blown away by the success Toby Gerhart. All season Gerhart has been torturing opponents, yet in the back of my mind I felt USC would still neutralize him come Saturday.

At day's end Gerhart had 29 carries for 178 yards and 3 touchdowns. I think it's fair to say that Gerhart did whatever, whenever, against the Trojans.

Now the big question is, is this a sign for things to come for a Harbaugh-led Stanford squad or are they just this year's Ole Miss? It will be interesting to see.


45 Wisconsin 24 Michigan

Four weeks into the season and the Wolverines were 4-0. Now Rich Rod's crew stands at 5-6 with the final game in the Big House against Ohio State. So yes you read that right, in order to avoid a second consecutive losing season UM has to beat the 10th ranked team in the country. The minor defensive holes for the Wolverines have blown up as the season has progressed and in turn the Wolverine fan base has begun to show frustration with Rich Rod's job so far. Keep in mind this is only his second year, he is installing a completely new system, the defense is weak, and lastly, but most importantly there's a true freshman playing quarterback. Also keep in mind that three of the Wolverines' losses have been by an average of 3 points. This is a team that will improve in the future. Give it time.

On the other side the Wisconsin Badgers have slowly gone through this season under the radar with an impressive 8-2 record. Coming into the season Coach Bret Bielema was definitely starting to get on the hot seat, but I doubt that's the case anymore. The Badgers only two losses have been to Ohio State and Iowa. The best news they have is their top quarterback (Scott Tolzien), running back (John Clay), and wide receiver (Nick Toon) will all be back next year. Look for Wisconsin to be a dark horse sleeper for next year's Big 10 title.


24 Cincinnati 21 West Virginia

Cincy has had a pretty easy time with it's opponents this year, but things this week things changed. With 2 minutes left Cincy kicked a field goal to go up 24-14 so the final was closer than the actual outcome, but rest assured WV put up a fight. With all that said, unless Cincinnati falls flat on it's face against Illinois on November 27th, you can assume that Cincinnati will be playing at Pittsburgh December 5th in easily one of the biggest games of the year. Winner of that game will get a BCS bowl.

Currently West Virginia is 7-3, but the team still has a home match up with Pittsburgh (a team who's season they would love to ruin after what happened in 2007)and a road game against Rutgers. If the Mountaineers dropped those final two the team will finish 7-5 and things will start to get a little uneasy in Morgantown with how Bill Stewart's tenure has gone. Yes, going 9-4 last year and 7-5 this year is not bad, but keep in mind this program was flying high when Rich Rod was in town. Fans expect more.


27 Pittsburgh 22 Notre Dame

Charlie Weis you are going to be fired. With 12:44 left in the game ND was down 27-9. The team was able to rally, but again Weis's team fell to a ranked squad. And to top it off ND (already with 4 losses) still has to play Connecticut and Stanford. On paper and from what we have seen I can not see Notre Dame beating Stanford so you are looking at another 7-5 season. That's not Notre Dame. Maybe at Temple or Baylor, but not Notre Dame. Weis has been given enough time and still his teams are, well, average.

Also, I have to say I'm awfully impressed with how well Pittsburgh is doing. In particular Coach Dave Wannstedt who has this Panther team two wins away from a BCS bowl. During his first season Wannstedt went 5-6, the following year he went 6-6, and then the next year in 2007 his team went 5-7. Looking at his first 3 years at Pitt (16-19) it makes you think why Wannstedt was not let go. I honestly think the thing that really factored into him coming back last year was the monumental upset Pittsburgh pulled over West Virginia in 2007. The Mountaineers were one win away from going to the BCS National Championship. All they had to do was beat a 4-7 Pitt team that was a 24 point underdog. Pitt won 13-9 and since that game both programs have been going in opposite directions. That win has catapulted Pitt into believing that they can compete with the nation's best.


24 Florida 14 South Carolina

Florida continued its winning streak to 20 games, but at the same time the team was not over the top impressive. A lot of that has to do with great South Carolina defense. A couple things stood out to me. First, with this loss Spurrier is 34-27 at South Carolina. The Ole Ball Coach really is not much of a coach anymore as his teams rarely finish the season strong. The Gamecocks do consistently play tough, but in the end they lose. Their biggest win in Spurrier's tenure was a six point win over a then top 5 ranked Ole Miss team. Would South Carolina ever think about firing Spurrier? Each year it's the same story. Start strong, finish awful.

Florida has the regular season wrapped up. They play Florida International followed by Florida State, so you can pretty much start talking about the SEC Championship Game. That is a tough game to say the least on who I think will prevail. On one hand I say, 'This is Florida and Tim Tebow. The quarterback advantage for Florida is the clear reason the Gators will win again.' But on the other side I have to think, 'Alabama lost last year and has spent an entire year anxiously awaiting a rematch. Rarely do teams beat Nick Saban twice with the same game plan. If Florida wants any shot of beating Alabama they have to change their game plan.' Because of the events that happened late in the fourth quarter in the LSU/Alabama game I will not be watching the SEC Championship Game, but I can pretty much guarantee it will be a defensive struggle. I will take Florida 24-16.


42 Ole Miss 17 Tennessee

Just when you thought Ole Miss's season was going to completely unravel the team came out and beat up a good Tennessee defense. Dexter McCluster ran for 282 yards and 4 touchdowns! REREAD THAT THREE MORE TIMES! This is not Madden, this is real life! Wow! Despite a season that has had some major disappointments, the Rebels still have a very good chance of finishing the season strong. Their ability to score points against a good defense shows that this team can take down LSU this Saturday. Put it this way - if Ole Miss beats LSU and Mississippi State, and wins their bowl game then you have yourself a 10-3 season. Not bad at all.

With that loss the Vols slip to 5-5. Their two remaining games are against Vandy and Kentucky. If Kiffin's crew finishes strong they will get a bowl. Kiffin has this program going in the right direction. Think of it like this - the Vols do not have the top notch athletes they use too, yet they hung with Florida and almost beat Alabama. Once they get the athletes things will really change. The future is bright.

September 7: Football Weekend Thoughts

This past week in Baton Rouge, La., has been nothing short of hell. Hurricane Gustav made sure of that by attempting to ruin all sorts of football entertainment.



He failed because I am still here and I am still going to give you my analysis on some important football games I saw this weekend.



NCAA



26 Florida 3 Miami-Florida



To the naked eye the final score of this game might make one think it was all Florida all four quarters. As Lee Corso would say, "Not so fast my friend!"



Tim Tebow is an incredible player, but it seems more and more teams are doing a better job of putting pressure on him. (Remember Michigan in the Capital One Bowl?) Miami outplayed Florida in the first half, and maybe could of hung closer if more experience was on the team. Either way, Florida does not look as awesome as they were proclaiming all offseason. The Gators are a work in progress and Superman is not unstoppable.



On the other hand, maybe, just maybe, the U is farther along with Coach Shannon than anyone expected. The 'Canes have the talent it's just a matter of producing on the field.





26 OSU 14 Ohio



Maybe it was the fact OSU plays USC next week, or maybe it has to do with Beanie Wells not playing. Either way trailing the University of Ohio on your home turf going into the fourth quarter is NOT good thing. Listen, personally I think OSU just overlooked the Bobcats. I mean look at the talent on OSU. You think not having Beanie Wells against the Bobcats was really that much of a difference? I didn't think so.



Now let's say OSU did play so poorly because they were without Beanie. Well, then I don't see a happy September 13 for the Buckeye faithful. Reason? This is a clear cut sign OSU relies too much on Beanie. USC will be expecting that. For OSU to beat USC they need Beanie and some more. Make sense?

NEW GAME MOUTH RECENTLY STARTING WATERING FOR....

Ohio State @ Wisconsin (October 4)

We knew this game would be good (at Camp Randall!) before the season started, but now it looks like it could be a classic. The Badgers run the ball crazy (that's a given), but they also seem to be throwing it out more (308 yards against Marshall). When the notorious OSU defense takes the field against the Badgers offense, basic science tells us something has to give.

NFL

24 Saints 20 Buccaneers

The ending to this one was nothing short of what the audience expected. But, unlike last year the Saints' D did come through in the clutch. In their first appearance as a team the D unit was shaky at times, but it did seal the victory.

Some key points:

1. Jonathan Vilma. The new linebacker made his presence known forcefully. 9 tackles, all with the same jaw-dropping intensity. The Saint faithful only hope No. 51 gets better.

2. Reggie Bush. No one seems to be criticized faster than Mr. Bush. Okay so maybe he can't be an every down back. So what. Just get him the ball somehow. He's electric and is nothing short of a playmaker. Not every player takes that little slant pass today and turns it into a 42 yard scamper.

3. Pierre Thomas. The undrafted second year man is making a name for himself. 10 carries for 52 yards. With Deuce still recovering and Reggie not being much of an every down back, Thomas has stepped in and done nicely so far. Rumors have it that N.O. is pursuing the recently released Chicago Bear Cedric Benson. Either way, Thomas is moving up the depth chart.


34 Bills 10 Seahawks

Whoa! Are these the same Bills I'm thinking of? Seattle is no pushover so this could be big news for the Bills. Reading the recap on the game, Buffalo jumped out on Seattle and never let up.

For the first time in a while the Bills may have themselves a solid offense, right when Tom Brady is pronounced out for the year. Wow. Can you spell possible AFC East champs? Hmm.

It will be interesting to see if Marshawn Lynch can reach his potential and become that marquee back the Bills have been missing ever since McGahee left town.



Well that covers about all I have to say for tonight. Yes, I could of written more, but again Hurricane Ike is outside my window. What nerve.

2008 March Madness: My Pathetic Attempt...

Again, I'll try my best to predict March Madness. Let me be honest as much as I love this tournament I have come to realize I am terrible on predicting.


It's awful. It's pathetic...but here I go. Enjoy.



EAST

Opening Round

1 UNC over 16b Mount St. Mary's
8 Indiana over 9 Arkansas
5 Notre Dame over 12 George Mason
4 Washington State over 13 Winthrop
11 St. Joe's over 6 Oklahoma
3 Louisville over 14 Boise State
7 Butler over 10 South Alabama
2 Tennessee over 15 American


UNC will cruise by the Play-In winner Mount St. Mary's with little effort; Indiana will defeat the Hogs because of their stellar guard play lead by Eric Gordon; ND will get past the first round for once and defeat a George Mason school with lofty expectations; Wazzu will beat Winthrop in a nail biter; St. Joe's will prove they deserved a bid by defeating an Oklahoma team by nearly double-digits; Louisville (my underdog for the region) will pull away from BSU in the final 5 minutes; Butler will get by South Alabama by 10+ points because of their experience and American's magical run will be over before it started as UT has a chip on their shoulder after the disturbing showing in the SEC Tourney.




Second Round


1 UNC over 8 Indiana
4 Wazzu over 5 Notre Dame
3 Louisville over 11 St. Joe's
2 Tennessee over 7 Butler


UNC again will not have much trouble with their opponent, Indiana, who will really have nothing in store to stop Pyscho-T; Wazzu will again creep on as they defeat Notre Dame in an old-fashion defensive showdown; Louisville will prevail over SJ easily and for my big early missed opportunity game, Butler will lose a heartbreaker to a Tennessee Vol team poised to win the region.


Sweet 16


1 UNC over 4 Wazzu
3 Louisville over 2 Tennessee


With nothing to stop Mr. Tyler, UNC will again move to the Elite 8 with not much trouble; Louisville will defeat an over hyped Vol team that nearly lost to Butler the week before.



Elite 8

3 Louisville over 1 UNC


Definitely the upset of the region. Pitino finally gets his club deep into the tournament with an unlikely upset of the tournament-favorite Tar Heels. Bottom line: Hansbrough can't win the game by himself.




MIDWEST


Opening Round

1 Kansas defeats 16 Portland State
9 Kent State over 8 UNLV
5 Clemson over 12 Villanova
4 Vandy over 13 Siena
11 Kansas State over 6 USC
3 Wisconsin over 14 Cal-State Fullerton
10 Davidson over 7 Gonzaga
2 Georgetown over UMBC


Kansas, without a sweat, rolls past PSU in the second half after a slow first half; Kent State trips up UNLV to again make a statement the MAC is overlooked; Clemson beats 'Nova convincingly to show the Duke upset was no fluke; Vandy defeats a Saints' team that will give the Tennessee school a run for their money; Wisconsin defeats Fullerton with their old boring style of basketball; Davidson finally gets it right and gets past the first round with a closing moment victory over John Stockton's Alma mater and the Hoyas win over UMBC because I don't know what "UMBC" stands for.

Second Round

1 Kansas over 9 Kent State
5 Clemson over 4 Vandy
11 Kansas State over 3 Wisconsin
2 Georgetown over 10 Davidson


Kansas gets huge scare, but comes from behind to beat the Flashes; Clemson takes down Vandy in one of the best games of tourney; Michael Beasley and Co. continue their tournament run with the defeat of the 1940s style basketball squad of Badgers and Georgetown easily prevails over Davidson as Roy Hibbert becomes too much to handle.


Sweet 16


1 Kansas over 5 Clemson
2 Georgetown over 11 Kansas State


Odd thing is I actually had Clemson winning this game for a while, then I changed it at the last minute. Kansas will win this game because of the superior level of talent AND the Clemson's inexperience in such big games in the tourney. And much like the Clemson game, I switched my decision on this one as well. The Hoyas head to the Elite 8 for the second straight year.


Elite 8


1 Kansas over 2 Georgetown


I see a very lopsided win for the Jayhawks on this day. I have never been overly impressed by the Hoyas this year and a juggernaut team such as Kansas will prove my point. I think this is finally the year the Jayhawks stop tripping up in the tourney early on.


SOUTH

Opening Round


1 Memphis over 16 Texas-Arlington
9 Oregon over 8 Mississippi State
12 Temple over 5 Michigan State
4 Pitt over 13 Oral Roberts
6 Marquette over 11 Kentucky
3 Stanford over 14 Cornell
10 St. Mary's over 7 Miami (FL)
2 Texas over 15 Austin Peay


Memphis is my favorite for the tourney so Arlington should be no trouble; Oregon wins over MSU simply because choosing the 8/9 games is nothing short of a coin flip; Temple takes down Izzo's squad only because every now and then the Spartans choke in the first round; Marquette (tough one) makes the committee realize that yes, UK did not deserve to get a bid; Stanford wins over Cornell because it's Cornell; St. Mary's is victorious over The U because the Gaels have a reputation for making noise in the tourney and the Longhorns prevail because of the guard play differences amongst the schools.


By the way this is the best cheer ever. In the 1970s, Fly Williams was a basketball at Austin Peay. The stands use to yell, "The Fly is open! Let's go Peay!"


Clever.

Second Round

1 Memphis over 9 Oregon

4 Pittsburgh over 12 Temple

3 Stanford over 6 Marquette

2 Texas over 10 St. Mary's

Memphis cruises past the Ducks in what will be known as a No Contest; Pittsburgh wins simply because they are the ultimate sleeper; the Cardinals defeat Marquette because I really think this Stanford team is better than given credit for and Texas defeats St. Mary's it what will be a surprisingly close game.

Sweet 16

1 Memphis over 4 Pittsburgh

3 Stanford over 2 Texas

Memphis beats Pitt in a nail biter because I thought about this match up too long and changed my mind. On the contrary, Stanford again moves on as the Longhorns yet again do not live up to expectations.

Elite 8

1 Memphis over 3 Stanford


This is a team on a mission. The Tigers lost a mere one game during the season. This squad is not going down this early. Memphis will win this by at least 7 points.


WEST


Opening Round


1 UCLA over 16 Miss. Valley St.
9 Texas A&M over 8 BYU
12 Western Kentucky over 5 Drake
4 UConn over 13 San Diego
11 Baylor over 6 Purdue
3 Xavier over 14 Georgia
10 Arizona over 7 West Virginia
2 Duke over 15 Belmont


UCLA will handle MVSU; A&M beats the Cougars because of a coin flip; Western Kentucky defeats this Drake squad because of more March Madness experience; UConn squeaks one out against St. Diego; Baylor defeats Purdon't as the team begins playing like it's the start of the season; Xavier, my big sleeper, ends UGA's dream week with a brutal thrashing of a Bulldog; 'Zona takes down WV with superior guard play and Duke, without error, takes down Belmont.


Second Round


1 UCLA over 9 Texas A&M
4 UConn over 12 Western Kentucky
3 Xavier over 11 Baylor
2 Duke over 10 Arizona


UCLA defense is again too much for the Aggies as the Bruins advance with ease; UConn continues to sneak into another round by defeating the surprising Hilltoppers; Xavier lets the magical run continue and Duke exploits the Wildcats nationally on why the team had 14 losses.


Sweet 16


1 UCLA over 4 UConn
3 Xavier over 2 Duke


UCLA defeats UConn by at least 10 points because of an absolute mismatch in talent and Xavier slays the Blue Devils in a game for the ages.


Elite 8


1 UCLA over 3 Xavier


The run is over as UCLA stops the Musketeers from continuing there magic anymore. Bruins make third consecutive Final Four.


Final Four


1 Kansas over 3 Louisville
1 Memphis over 1 UCLA


Kansas stops Pitino's team's race for glory behind senior leadership and Memphis takes down the Bruins for their second straight Final Four exit because of Memphis's team of destiny standing.


Championship


1 Memphis over 1 Kansas


No surprise but the Memphis Tigers win the national championship for the first time ever. Memphis pulls out a 7 point win because of the team's consistency throughout the season. The Tigers have been waiting for this!


I'd be happy to read the predictions you guys have. Do not think you have type as much as me. Just let me know who you have in the Final Four and what big upsets you have.