Monday, October 25, 2010
LSU Got Beat, Plain and Simple
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
LSU: And You Want to Be My Latex Salesman?
A show I enjoy watching is Seinfeld. One scene in Seinfeld best sums up how I felt as a fan after LSU's 32-10 lackluster win against McNeese State on Saturday.
Monday, August 09, 2010
Les Miles is Sitting on a Loaded Pistol
College football will be upon us in less than a month and like any other year predictions are abundant. We all think we know how our team is going to do because of x, y and z. We feel our opinion is worth listening to because of our involvement in alumni relations, high school football or just because we have been watching football for most our lives. The story is always the same. So without further ado I thought I would give my breakdown on the 2010 LSU Tigers football team. After all why would you not want to listen to my insightful predictions for the upcoming season?
For the first three years at LSU Les Miles was on cloud nine. He won a national championship and compiled an impressive 34-6 record that included going 19-5 in the SEC. But in the past two seasons that record has dipped to a disappointing 17-9, including 8-8 in the SEC. How did it get so bad so fast in Baton Rouge for Les Miles? And why should there be hope for the Tigers this coming year?
Whatever improvements LSU made in 2009 from 2008 (an improved defense), there was equally as many setbacks (lack of an offense). The question is does LSU have the mindset and skills to improve and avoid another season of disappointment? The answer is yes and here are the main reasons.
1. UNDERDOG ROLE
For the past however many months the national media has taken turns either a) ragging on Les Miles b) criticizing Jordan Jefferson's potential or c) highlighting why LSU can not sniff Alabama's jock strap. (Do not get me wrong last year I spent a lot of time yelling at Miles and Jefferson.) These criticisms on the football program have in turn lit a fire under Les Miles and the LSU football team. When your program is nationally dissed (4th in the SEC West at the SEC Media Day) a team comes together. It has happened to LSU teams in the past. Add in the fact that Les Miles has his back against the wall and I have to believe things will turn around. There's a reason he won 34 games in his first three seasons. Sure he had "Saban's players," but he still won 34 games. Look at Miami Florida. Randy Shannon has a heck of a lot of talent, but his teams have really never done much. Bottom line: Miles was a winner in the beginning. That was not a fluke. He needs to find that magic he use to show on the sidelines.
2. QUARTERBACK GROWTH
Since Ryan Perrilloux's debacle LSU has not had a strong quarterback behind center. Far too often inexperience has gotten the best of the LSU quarterback. Despite Jordan Jefferson's shortcomings in 2009 (held on to the ball too long and accuracy issues) he still showed moments of promise. Say what you want about the guy he still finished with a respectable 17 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Add in the fact that he was the 5th most efficient passer in the SEC you can see why I truly believe he will drastically improve this year. Jefferson was one of the youngest quarterbacks to be starting in SEC history. When Russell and Flynn came to LSU they were not thrown onto the field. They had time to slowly understand the offense and better yet go on the field when they were ready. Jefferson did not have this and I feel like this is all too commonly overlooked. With a year under his belt I feel LSU's offense will be much more in sync because of Jefferson's maturity and the emergence of a much better offensive line.
3. REVAMPED OFFENSIVE LINE
In 2009 the LSU offensive line was surprisingly one of the worst in the SEC. Better yet, it cemented an LSU offense that ranked 107th nationally. This is the biggest question mark and the biggest thing I am most concerned with. Last year's offensive line for the majority of the season stunk. It never got into a groove so two things suffered immensely: first, with no offensive line there is no run game. Meaning LSU fans got very familiar with 2nd and 9s instead of 2nd and 4s. That's crucial when you really break that down. With a young quarterback, whether or not it will be a scoring drive starts with progress on first down. And more times than not on first down for LSU in 2009 they ran the ball. And more times than not LSU did a poor job moving the ball. Secondly, with a poor offensive line and an inexperienced quarterback you are probably going to have a) a quarterback on the run a lot and b) an inept offense that struggled the majority of the season. Both of these were true. This aspect can not be overlooked. Even a slightly improved Jefferson and a more in sync offensive line will greatly benefit the LSU offense. I am confident in both.
4. BILLY GONZALES'S IMPACT
Former Florida wide receivers coach Billy Gonzales is one of brightest spots this past offseason for the Tigers. Gonzales is widely known for the successes he had with utilizing Percy Harvin. I think what excites me the most is how LSU has a player of equal mold to Harvin - Russell Shepard. Shepard is a serious threat every time he steps on the field. The spring game for the Tigers was not the greatest showcase of LSU's potential, but the one bright spot for Shepard's ability to consistently get open. Add in the fact LSU has Reuben Randle and Terrence Toliver and you can see why I expect to see great improvement from the wide receivers group. Gonzales is one of the best in the business at getting his players to maximize their potential meaning the three-headed monster of Shepard, Randle and Tolliver should cause havoc for any team in the SEC.
5. PETERSON ISLAND AND MO
Patrick Peterson is not a human. He is not a normal person like you or me. Patrick Peterson is a freak. He origins are as mysterious as Captain America or Superman. Peterson is 6'1" 222 pounds. Take that in for second. LSU has a cornerback that is 222 pounds and he has not lost any speed. Like I said he is a freak. (Just to give you an idea Darrelle Revis is 5'11" 198 pounds.) Some people have suggested moving him to safety. My question - why? With Peterson being the shutdown corner he is that's one less side of the field LSU has to worry about, better yet if gives them options. The other corner is Morris "Mo" Claiborne. Claiborne has been having an impressive camp. With two shutdown corners LSU will be able to blitz that much more and that makes all the difference. One of the issues with LSU's defense last year was the struggles LSU's cornerbacks (other than Peterson) had throughout the season. One of the glaring problems was how LSU gave up big 3rd downs. Having one superb cornerback and another up and coming cornerback gives Chavis options on third downs.
6. BACK TO BASICS DEFENSIVE LINE
The offensive line stunk last year and the defensive line stunk. I would go as far as to say the defensive line was worse. It's like dominoes when you really put together LSU's 2009 problems. Without an effective pass rush the run defense was lousy therefore the rest of the defense had to play that much better. (Now keep in mind LSU's defense was not terrible last year, but they were not spectacular. Still improvements need to be made. These are the hopeful solutions.) Of all the young players getting on the field this season, I am most excited about the defensive line. There's Sam Montgomery, Chris Davenport and Josh Downs to name a few. Add in senior Drake Nevis and there's reason to believe this unit can rebound.
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Playing the underdog role, Jefferson's quarterback growth, a revamped offensive line, Billy Gonzales's impact, Peterson Island and Mo and a back to basics defensive line are the six reasons I am optimistic about LSU's 2010 season. Now believe me I'm well aware of the past struggles and I am well aware of the uneasiness about LSU football this season. I know things could get worse for LSU in a hurry, but I look at Miles and I look at Jefferson and I think had LSU won that game against Ole Miss or Penn State, just one more game, all the talk would of been how Miles got his 4th season of at least 10 wins. Now granted things did get bad last season, but it's interesting to note how drastically things switch. If there is one thing that has the biggest impact on the LSU's season I think, no question, it would have to be Jordan Jefferson's maturity. How that guy changed his game this offseason will be directly correlated with LSU's final record. (By the way I read Jefferson watched highlights of every single play he was involved in last year. He took notes on what he did wrong. And at SEC Media Day one of the most impressive things spectators commented on was the maturity of Jordan Jefferson. Whether or not a good interview translates into a good quarterback remains to be seen.)
I think after seeing Les Miles's most recent press conference where the Mad Hatter was displaying a childish grin I have to agree with my dad. Les Miles is seating on a loaded pistol and no one knows it.
Geaux Tigers!
SEASON PREDICTIONS
Here is my call. I am sick of thinking I will jinx the team. The Saints won the Super Bowl so the word jinx is dead...I think.
North Carolina
This is the first game of the season meaning the team will be rusty. I am willing to bet that 95% of my age group is going to be cursing the TV if LSU does not score within 38 seconds into the game. This will be mostly a defensive game. North Carolina has a good defense, so does LSU. The biggest factor in this game will be LSU's ability to neutralize UNC's amazing defensive line. Look for the Tigers to pull out a close one.
LSU 19-17
@ Vanderbilt
The Tigers will travel to Vanderbilt to take on a Commodore team that just lost their head coach about a month ago. Vandy will be down this year despite returning quarterback Larry Smith. The LSU run game will be pivotal in this game. I think Michael Ford and Richard Murphy propel LSU to blow up this game.
LSU 27-7
Mississippi State
Last year the Bulldogs really thought they had LSU. Unfortunately they could not get six inches. What a shame. 2010's game will not be a blowout. I do not expect LSU to struggle in their home opener. It will be a close game at the half, but the second half the Tigers put on the after burners. Jefferson and Shepard cause havoc while The Freak bulldozes a quarterback.
LSU 31-14
West Virginia
It's been a while since some Tiger Stadium magic has taken place. WV comes ready to play and jumps on LSU. Jefferson plays a terrific game. LSU's defense struggles against Noel Devine. WV has a fourth quarter lead, but Jefferson leads the Tigers back for a thrilling victory.
LSU 34-30
Tennessee
A week after a dramatic win against the Mountaineers, LSU gets jumped on by a struggling Vols team. Tigers defense makes some key second half stops that swings the momentum. Shepard is again a huge factor and a nightmare for defenses.
LSU 27-21
@Florida
The Swamp has not been kind to LSU in recent years, unfortunately I do not see that changing. For the third week in a row LSU finds itself in a hole, but the Tigers are unable to shake a 14-0 deficit. The offensive line struggles in the trenches against the Gators. Also, the run game does not get going and Jefferson has to lead the team to victory on his own. Not the Tigers day.
Florida 34-16
McNeese State
LSU demolishes yet another Louisiana team.
LSU 44-14
@Auburn
LSU travels to Hell to play the Auburn Tigers. Game comes down to the four quarter where Auburn scores a late touchdown to crush LSU's dreams. Tigers play very well in defeat.
Auburn 24-21
Alabama
The entire state of Louisiana eagerly awaits for the Game of the Year. Les Miles and his crew do push ups in broken glass to get pumped for the game. Unlike 2008, Bama's last time in Tiger Stadium, LSU does not have a pick-six quarterback leading the team. Jefferson gets LSU out to a fast start. Russell Shepard and Reuben Randle cause trouble for Alabama all afternoon. Alabama makes a fourth quarter rally only to be denied by Chavis's defense. Score one for the good guys!
LSU 28-23
Louisiana-Monroe
Like I said, another Louisiana blowout. Yawn.
LSU 35-7
Ole Miss
LSU redeems themselves after back-to-back years of falling to the Rebels. The running game allows LSU's play action to get a couple scores. Even Masoli can not rally the Rebels after an impressive third quarter showing by the Tigers.
LSU 31-19
@Arkansas
The Razorbacks get redemption after last year's dramatic overtime loss. LSU defense fails to make a key stop towards the end of the game. Jefferson has a solid performance, Peterson has a great game, but is not enough to rally the Tigers.
Arkansas 28-20
Final call: 9-3
Even with only a one game improvement from 2009 I still think LSU makes great strides in 2010.
Monday, November 02, 2009
College Football Analysis After Week 9
Not sure anyone can do a more lousy job than me on getting my thoughts up. It is already Friday afternoon for crying out loud!
41 Florida 17 Georgia
Honestly, I really thought UGA was going to come out pumped to play. After all UF hasn't looked that great the last two games. I expected UGA to come out motivated to punish UF for last year's 49-10 slaughter, but that never happened. UF looked like it's old self and Joe Cox was self-destructing all afternoon. His turnovers are about as appalling as Terrelle Pryor's. First play of the second half is an interception? Just like that it was 31-10. It was funny to see Tebow plowing through the line. I guess that whole concussion safety thing was thrown out the window. Right now UF looks bound for the Rose Bowl. I do not see any potential trip ups whatsoever. One of the more interesting things to note is the growing angst towards Georgia coach Mark Richt. It's amazing how quickly someones successes can be thrown under the table the instant someone says, "Hey he doesn't have a National Championship yet!" Now granted he doesn't have a title and I'm sure he wants one, but for crying out loud keep in mind he has been very successful. Give it time UGA fans.
47 Oregon 20 USC
Wow. The USC Trojans do lose games, but no one beats them by 4 touchdowns. That was until Saturday. The Ducks flat out embarrassed USC in a way no one has done since Carroll took control of the program. Oregon clearly showed they are a team worthy of playing in the BCS National Championship. The offense is explosive and the defense is suffocating. Now granted I realize they are far back in the BCS, but there is still a lot of season left. Biggest thing is that Duck offense. It is so unique and dangerous that the defenses are constantly having to gamble on whether or not it's a pass or rush. I have to give Coach Chip Kelly a lot of credit for turning things around after getting pounded 19-8 at Boise State.
42 LSU 0 Tulane
In the last two weeks LSU's offense has looked the way the fans have desired all season. The biggest thing I noticed was LSU's ability to get seven points and not the mere three they were getting earlier in the year. Another thing was the LSU defense. In the game Kelvin Sheppard had 13 tackles. That is 39 tackles in three games! LSU's defense has slowly snuck up in the stats. Not only is the secondary shut down quality but the linebackers are everywhere. Yes, the defensive line is a work in progress, but Chavis combats that with blitzes from all-hitman Harry Coleman.
33 Auburn 20 Ole Miss
I do not know what to think of Ole Miss and I do not know what to think of Auburn. Auburn was on a three game losing streak that would surely extend to four. Well for some reason the War Eagles weren't having that. QB Chris Todd looked like his old self and the Auburn running game got moving as well. On the other side Jevan Snead again disappointed the nation. It amazes how much this big time pro prospect has struggled this year. Ole Miss already has three losses and the season is not over. They still have the Egg Bowl versus Mississippi State who by all means has not been a pushover. Is opposition against Coach Houston Nutt forming in Oxford? Hmm.
I am well aware this post stinks, but keep in mind I did this in twenty minutes. I will do a better job in the future with a) making my posts longer and b) getting them out in a reasonable amount of time. Lots of big games this weekend. Seasons will be made or lost come Saturday...
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
College Football Analysis After Week 8
Sorry for taking so long to get another post out. I was actually kidnapped by a wild pack of bandits who desperately wanted me to turn over my 2001 Camry to them.
I would not give in to their threats...
12 Alabama 10 Tennessee
For much of year the Crimson Tide were looked at by all as the most complete team. The defense was one of the best and the offense had a running game close to unstoppable. The best luck anyone had was South Carolina who fell 20-6. No one had ever hung with Alabama. No one had ever really made the Tide fight to the end.
That was until Tennessee.
Prior to this game not much of a chance was given to the Vols, but after the 12-10 score stood Kiffin and crew got respect. Yet I'm positive his team is still very unhappy with the outcome. It always seems the importance of special teams is pushed behind offense and defense, yet as the UT/Bama game shows you the special teams is just as important as any of those three. 3 missed field goals, including a potentially game winning 44 yarder with 4 seconds left. Unfortunately for the Vols Terrence "Train" Cody broke through the line and destroyed the Orange Crew's dreams of ruining Bama's season. It was interesting to note that once in field goal range Kiffin thought it was a gimme. Gary Anderson is the NFL's all-time leading scorer. If he was kicking a 44 yarder in his prime I would still be nervous. This was a college kicker! Point is UT needed to get closer. The fact that Kiffin did not have the urge to move further ahead only highlights even more the little confidence he has in QB Jonathan Crompton.
In two big games this year (Florida and Alabama) Kiffin has managed to put together a very impressive game plan. His teams were very heavy underdogs yet they still had a chance to win in the end. Once Kiffin starts really getting some athletes Tennessee will be a force.
So what did we learn about Alabama? First, they are vulnerable. They, like every other team this year, do have flaws. Biggest thing is QB Greg McElroy still has some maturing to do. Tennessee knew Mark Ingram was Bama's biggest weapon and they neutralized him much of the game. McElroy has to be able to pick up the slack. Second, despite not playing the best game Alabama found a way to win. That is something that needs to be noted. Sooner or later there will be a game that Alabama finds themselves in where they are not playing there best, yet they have to fight to the end. This was that. Even when the odds where against them the team hung in there and blocked a field goal to, as Cody says, "save the season."
15 Iowa 13 Michigan State
I love when the claims come out that a one loss USC team would go over an undefeated Iowa team. Wow. Can someone please give the Hawkeyes some love? I can only help but think the only reason USC would go over Iowa is because I don't know maybe the fact that USC is in Los Angeles and Iowa is, well, in the middle of Iowa. Anyway onto the game.
In yet another Big 10 slug fest the Hawkeyes found themselves behind (13-9) late in the fourth quarter at Spartan Stadium. With a mere two seconds the Iowa Hawkeyes managed to convert a 4th and Goal that yet again resulted in a heart attacks across Iowa. Iowa is not the most glamorous team, but in all honesty few teams have a better knack at finding a way to win than the Hawkeyes. Look at there schedule right now. In week 1 they blocked two field goals by Northern Iowa in the final seconds to preserve a 17-16 victory. Okay so it was only Northern Iowa. September 26 Iowa triumphs over Penn State 21-10...in Happy Valley. And there's the home win over Michigan 30-28 and the road victory at Wisconsin where the team came from behind to win 20-10. And finally there's this victory at Michigan State on the last play. How is that not an impressive resume?! The Big 10 is a lot stronger than it was two years ago. I can only hope the voters see this.
There are four games remaining for the Iowa Hawkeyes. Sure they could trip up against Indiana, Northwestern, or a solid Minnesota but let's me honest the biggest remaining test is a November 17th showdown in Columbus against Ohio State. It will be tough, but again hasn't the season been like that the whole time?
31 LSU 10 Auburn
LSU fans have waited an awful long time to finally see some offense. After a dreadful showing in a 13-3 loss to Florida, LSU came out firing on all cylinders against the War Eagles. Unlike every other game this year, LSU punched the ball in for touchdowns (not field goals) right from the get-go. Had it not been for Jefferson's fumble in the first quarter it would of 21-0 after one quarter. And finally Russell Shepard got to see pay dirt. On a 69 yard scamper Shepard burst through the War Eagle defense and put the score at 31-3. Also worth noting is the LSU defense. Each game Defensive Coordinator John Chavis's crew looks better and better. LSU fans can only hope the Tigers can keep this complete game effort as LSU gets ready for a November 7th showdown against the Alabama Crimson Tide.
Jordan Jefferson played the best game of his career Saturday. His ability to get better every week is what makes this LSU team so potentially dangerous. If he can really get a handle on this LSU offense like he did against Auburn then watch out.
On the other side are the Auburn "Tigers". Through five games the War Eagles were 5-0 and hype began to form that maybe Auburn is better than we thought they were. After all there offense was running through everyone. Now fast forward to the present. First the War Eagles got dominated by Arkansas, then they lost at home to Kentucky who just lost their starting quarterback and finally they got dominated much worse than the score at Tiger Stadium against LSU. Auburn is currently 5-3 and you can not help but think that it might get worse. Auburn still has to play Ole Miss (this weekend), Georgia, and Alabama. Gene Chizik needs to get things under control before things really get chaotic.
29 Florida 19 Mississippi State
Something is not right in Gainesville. Prior to the season the Gators were touted as potentially the greatest team ever. Now granted most likely the team will go undefeated and win the national championship, but still it has to be noted how much the team is, well, struggling. It was a one score game going into the fourth quarter. Sure you can say that Bulldog coach Dan Mullen use to be Florida's offensive coordinator, but again this is supposed to be the greatest college football team ever. Tebow does not look like Tebow. He threw two pick sixes! Florida was fortunate to not have their interception in the fourth quarter overturned (the referees once again went brain dead), otherwise it would of be a one score game deep in the fourth quarter. Now I have to ask how does LSU's struggles against the Bulldogs look now? Maybe not so bad. If the Bulldogs took Florida to the brink you can not help but think that maybe, like Kiffin, once Mullen gets the athletes the wins will start happening.
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
College Football: Concerns, Issues After Week 2
Two weeks into the season and we already have back to back weeks were a top 5 team have fallen. I can only imagine what the rest of the season holds. Here's what I learned from week 2.
Florida 56 Troy 6: The Gators' D has given up a total of 9 points in two games, but we have yet to see them go against a quality opponent. Florida's second warm up game gave us nothing new about the Gators. UF will take on Tennessee who is not what I would call "a quality opponent" yet.
Houston 45 Oklahoma State 35: One week after defeating the Georgia Bulldogs, Oklahoma State gets beaten at home by the Houston Cougars. This upset is not all that incredible. Houston likes to throw the ball a lot with quarterback Casey Keenum, the 2008 Conference USA offensive player of the year. I am sure Oklahoma State has a better defense than last year, but at the end of the day this game shows us that their pass defense is still lacking. What happens when Oklahoma State goes up against other Big 12 gunslingers like Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, and Taylor Potts? The remarkable thing is Oklahoma State went down 24-7 rallied to take the lead 28-24 then again at 35-31.
Michigan 38 Notre Dame 34: This was a game that has been marked for months. The losing team was sure to have a head coach who's job security would be damaged. Coming into this game I did not look at Michigan with the same underdog status as most of the country labeled them as. (Mainly because RichRod's offense came into being against Western Michigan in week 1.) Did I honestly think UM would win? No. Overall, very good game and even though ND lost they still have no reason to think this season is over. In the fourth quarter UM held a 31-20 lead that was quickly turned into a 34-31 ND lead with 5:13 left. NOW HERE IS WHERE THINGS GOT INTERESTING. Michigan can not get the ball moving and punts the ball to Notre Dame. The ball is downed with 3:25 left in the game. On first down ND runs for 13 yards for a first down. Now it's first down and ND runs a another play up the middle and is stopped for one yard. UM then uses it's first time out. There are 2:29 left in the game and it is 2nd and 9. On the next two plays ND throws the ball and both are incomplete. UM gets the ball back on a punt on there 43 yard line with 2:19 left and 2 timeouts. And it is right here where you have to ask Coach Weis what was he thinking. If you are going to make that gamble where you throw it instead of opting to run the ball and burn there timeouts you better execute the play otherwise you are going to get ripped apart. Here's the thing, let's say Weis runs the ball on 2nd and 3rd down and both times UM calls a timeout. Well at least when they would get the ball back Michigan would have no timeouts. Weis gambled and lost and now he must pay.
And by the way I was very impressed with Tate Forcier. In his first start he threw for 240 and ran for 70. 310 total yards in one start? Not bad at all.
USC 18 Ohio State 15: This was the game of the week. USC was supposed to run over OSU, but for much of the game OSU was in control. Even after Terrelle Pryor's first play interception, OSU was still able to take control of the game. OSU had the largest crowd in The Shoe's history, they neutralized Joe McKnight, they made Matt Barkley look average, and they had a 5 point lead, 15-10, with 7 minutes to go in the fourth. Yet in the end Ohio State lost a heartbreaker. Behind Matt Barkley, USC had a 6:10 minute drive that was oh so similar to Juice Williams of Illinois's 8 minute drive back in 2007. Even though USC broke OSU's back with that 6:10 drive, the Bucks still had a shot with 1:05 left. After a return to the OSU 36 yard line the offense sputtered and OSU fell again. I can only help but think when is Pryor going to have his moment? Sure it was a difficult situation, down by 3 with 1 minute left, but these are things Pryor is supposed to do. He was brought in as the next Vince Young. This was a situation in which he was supposed to excel. A guy like Pryor is supposed to fall in this sort of sentence. "The game was lost and any normal quarterback would of lost, but we had Pryor so we won." Bottom line when is Pryor going to have his moment?
LSU 23 Vanderbilt 9: There's a lot to be said about the LSU game. There's good and bad news. First the bad, or I should say UNSATISFYING news. LSU's offense is not at the place we all thought they would be. Many times on Saturday LSU went three and out. This was frustrating by all means because our playcalling seemed to be so bland. All summer there was talk about how Gary Crowton was going to really pump up the LSU offense. I, as well as all LSU fans, was excited to see The Wizard (Crowton) do his magic, but we have not seen that yet. I understand QB Jordan Jefferson is young, what I do not understand is why we ran the same old running back dive up the middle on three or four consecutive possessions. Each time LSU was getting no yardage whatsoever. What needed to take place for it to be realized that a running back dive on first down was not working? Also, LSU had 5 wide receivers many times, but very rarely threw the ball deep.
Here are some things to keep in mind if you are one of the people upset by LSU leading Vandy by the mere score of 16-9 in the fourth quarter. Imagine if one of LSU's three field goals resulted in a touchdown. Instead of 16-9, we are looking at 20-9 and a final score of 27-9. The main thing is the offense is still a work in progress but at the same time if they could just punch it in the endzone a little more than LSU would not be in the situation they were Saturday - up by only 7 in the fourth.
Now for the good news. In week 1 LSU's defense gave up an appalling 471 yards of offense to the Washington Huskies. A lot of skepticism came out as to whether or not new defensive coordinator John Chavis was the man for the job. The performance against UW was nothing to be proud of, but I was convinced Chavis would get it under control. After all he is not a first year coach, he has been doing this for years, and he's been good at it.
That all changed this past Saturday against Vanderbilt. The LSU defense gave up a mere 210 yards. Period. Vandy had one scoring drive that would of ended had LB Kelvin Sheppard not dropped an interception that would of surely been six points. Chad Jones, as well as the rest of the team, was tackling a lot better. Also, the defensive line started to really get into it. How about the play by Drake Nevis and Al Woods? And what about cornerback Patrick Peterson? He literally shuts down his side of the field. I am excited to see this unit continue to grow throughout the season.
As of now LSU can compete with Alabama, Ole Miss, and Georgia mainly because of our defense's play Saturday. Again I might be jumping the gun on that at this moment.
Florida? Lots of improvement needs to be shown on offense if we want the sky to fall October 10th, but never say never.
Things I was WRONG about...
Unless UCLA has one heck of a defense, UT's offense is not that good. I guess in the end it was just the fact they were playing Western Kentucky. In there home stadium the Vols lost 19-15 to a young, inexperienced UCLA team. Vol QB Jonathon Crompton's performance was dreadful to say the least. He was 13 of 26 for 93 yards and 3 interceptions. Touchdowns? Zero. And oh yeah he lost a fumble as well.
Auburn. I was kept thinking dark times where upon the War Eagles. They did a lousy job of hiring a coach and the SEC West was far too loaded for them to make any noise. I know it's only been 2 games, but rest assured a 49-24 over Mississippi State is something to raise your eyebrow on. Look I know it's early on, but I am ust saying do not be surprised if Auburn starts making some noise.
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
The Ultimate 2009 SEC West Breakdown

Earlier this summer I posted my thoughts on the SEC East. I stated I would give my analysis for the SEC West. Well, finally I have an SEC West prediction for the 2009 season, but this time things are a bit different. Instead of me breaking down the SEC West I let my dad spread his thoughts.
Enjoy.
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I need a fix. It has been seven months since I’ve watched a live LSU football game and my patience is waning. National recruiting day anticipation and the post signing euphoria carried me through February and into early March. March Madness was good until LSU drew North Carolina in the second round. College baseball season was great – hey, we won a National Championship, but that was over in late June. The final blow was discovering that someone (hopefully inadvertently) erased the Georgia Tech Game on the DVR. I am left with my imagination.
Lately, my only relief comes from listening to Bill King of Rivals Radio analyze who has the best three deep roster. Beside that bit of fascinating analysis, we get an hourly call from an Auburn or Tennessee hopeful asking Bill to confirm that they could really be better than all of the prognosticators are saying. “We had a great spring, our conditioning is going well and our coaches have great discipline – can we win 8 or 9 games?” Nope, sorry boys, you are in the darkness. Just about every fan base in the NCAA has experienced it at some point, certainly we have at LSU. You are going to be thrown into the pits, forced to grind and gnash your teeth.
Twenty-four days and a wake up and it will be over for me. LSU kicks off on the West Coast with Washington, Ty Willingham’s latest debacle. Meanwhile, I have decided to do a bit of prognosticating myself. Here is my shot at handicapping the SEC West. Being an engineer, I decided to take an analytical approach. Not that it will make my projections any more accurate as the one thing I have learned over the years is that predicting sporting outcomes is a crapshoot. You throw it down and walk away. Here it goes.
I have broken my analysis into five categories, each weighted relatively evenly. This includes the
1. athletic quality of the roster using historical recruiting as the benchmark,
2. quality of the coaching staff,
3. returning players in leadership positions,
4. key difference makers or star quality athletes,
5. and finally -non-measureables (things I just have a feel for).
Strength of Recruiting
There are always exceptions, but you can get a pretty good feel for the quality of school’s roster by simply analyzing their historical recruiting success. If you look at the top schools in the country, determined by ranking services such as ESPN/USA Today, you will find a fairly close correlation with the school’s success; and the recent recruiting success as determined by ranking services. It is that simple. Sure, the recruiting rankings often miss on perspective athletes and they often under or over estimate a team’s overall position, but they are generally very closely aligned to how a team performs and finishes. For purposes of this evaluation, I just picked one service and looked at the rankings over the past five years. This is what I found utilizing the Rivals website rankings from 2004 until 2009:
Rivals Recruiting Ranking by Year
2004: Alabama (15), LSU (2), Auburn (21), Ole Miss (30), Arkansas (22), Miss. State (62)
2005: Alabama (18), LSU (22), Auburn (13), Ole Miss (30), Arkansas (24), Miss. State (33)
2006: Alabama (11), LSU (7), Auburn (10), Ole Miss (16), Arkansas (26), Miss. State (44)
2007: Alabama (10), LSU (4), Auburn (7), Ole Miss (27), Arkansas (31), Miss. State (39)
2008: Alabama (1), LSU (11), Auburn (20), Ole Miss (29), Arkansas (36), Miss. State (44)
2009: Alabama (1), LSU (2), Auburn (19), Ole Miss (18), Arkansas (16), Miss. State (25)
Based upon this analysis, you would have to say that Alabama and LSU likely have the most athletic rosters. Auburn should be third followed by Ole Miss and Arkansas in a coin toss and Mississippi State bringing up the rear. I think this is fairly accurate, but I believe Ole Miss is understated in their positional rankings. Either last year was a total anomaly or they have recruited far better than Rivals predicted because they appeared to be as athletic as any team they faced in 2008, and then some.
Quality of Coaching Staff
From my standpoint, ranking the coaching staffs is really subjective. I don’t have access to anything other than my TV Set and the Internet. I don’t get to attend practices, talk to people who are in and around these campuses, so I am really going by what I read and personal observation. There are many that feel Saban is the best coach in the SEC West, and perhaps the country. Bobby Petrino is looked upon as an offensive guru. Neither one of them did too well when they ventured into the NFL so perhaps they are not what they are made up to be. Houston Nutt has a great reputation for doing more with less. Les Miles is not viewed positively by the press and the other two guys are not even on the radar yet.
So I am left with my own book of thoughts. In my opinion, I think Saban is a great program manager and perhaps excels above everyone else when it comes to transformational leadership. He is a Lee Iacocca type when it comes to building and changing culture, but he is prone to error like all humans. He pulled a few stinkers in Baton Rouge in his previous gig and I am guessing those same mishaps are in store for the Bama Nation. Houston Nutt has never been to the mountain. It seems to me he has not proven anything yet other than he is a smart guy that can motivate a team through stretches. Miles did a great job in his first three years in Baton Rouge, but last year was not his best effort, for whatever reason.
From my limited view, I just don’t see any differentiation here. Any one of these four coaches can do it given the right set of circumstances and players. I am calling this a wash.
Returning Players in Leadership Roles
Senior leadership is always a huge factor in success. No one wins without chemistry and chemistry usually starts with your seniors. No senior leadership inevitably leads to under performance and high quality leadership results in the opposite.
Last year’s LSU team, from the outside at least, seemed to be lacking in this area. We had some great players and good guys, but I don’t think they established the culture and mindset that was needed for success. This year’s seniors may be exceptional. Getting Ciron Black, Charles Scott and Brandon Lafell to postpone the NFL was obviously a boost. These are the guys that are going to keep the team together. Alabama lost a few great leaders, guys that made a difference last year. Who knows if they can be replaced? Ole Miss has most of their roster back, so I would have to assume they will be okay in that category.
My call here goes with LSU. I know I am a homer, but I think that guys like Ciron Black just don’t come along very often.
Difference Makers in Key Roles
As was reinforced to the LSU faithful last year – no quarterback, no team. It is that simple. You don’t have to be an all American, but you have to show up and make the plays when it counts. John Parker Wilson was seemingly nothing special athletically, but that guy made all of the plays throughout the year. Javon Snead is just flat out good. He made a couple of throws in the LSU game that were world class, and he showed up when the bell rang.
How important was Alabama’s nose tackle. Nobody could move that guy off his line and hence, nobody could consistently run on the Tide. Take away Cody and Alabama is a different team.
Both Cody and Snead are back, but new play makers will emerge in the SEC. Whatever team has the most playmakers will have an advantage. Based upon what I saw last year, I give this edge to Ole Miss and Snead (along with Hardy and the rest of that roster). Alabama and LSU should be okay and Arkansas is somewhat unknown. Ole Miss gets the edge mainly based on Snead’s success last year.
Non-Measurables (gut feel)
Now this is where I normally get into trouble. Non-measurables include emotions. Emotions lead to collective brain farts, like the Auburn guy on Rivals Radio that is trying to convince himself that by working hard and having better team discipline the Tigers/War Chickens/Plainsmen will just be good enough to win. Sorry – stay in your hole.
Here is the thumb nail summary:
Everything seemed to fall in place for Alabama last year. That doesn’t normally happen two years in a row. They will have to earn it this year.
LSU had the opposite type of year. Nothing seemed to go right, so you would think that we are due for a few breaks. Personally, I think we used them all up in 2007; we can’t count on the football Gods this year. Also, our schedule is brutal. If we didn’t have to play Bama, Ole Miss and Georgia on the road and host a Florida team that Alabama and Ole Miss dodge, we might have a chance. Alas, that is too much to overcome.
Arkansas is the team that might just sneak up and steal the whole thing. Mallet can throw the ball and they have a bunch of players coming back. But there is an old saying; everything back from nothing is still nothing.
So that leaves Ole Miss. Everyone, including myself, expects them to get caught reading their clippings and gag on themselves. But I got a feeling (emotions) that this is going to be Nutts year to show the world just how good of coach he is.
My call:
1. Ole Miss
2. LSU
3. Alabama
4. Arkansas
5. Auburn
6. Miss State
Monday, November 24, 2008
5 Thoughts for Final Week of Regular Season
The college football regular season is about finished, and to no one's surprise the BCS is again pure chaos. Even so, with one final week much is still to be determined. (Let's not forget the upcoming conference championship games.)
Without further ado I know give you my thoughts and predictions on some key match ups.
1. Florida and Oklahoma will both roll this weekend. Florida will handle the Seminoles by at least 17, and I think the Cowboys of Oklahoma State will give Oklahoma some trouble. Yet, in the end, final score will be the Sooners by at least two touchdowns.
2. The SEC is inferior to the Big 12. Sure, maybe the SEC's best is better than the Big 12's best, but from top to bottom: Big 12 is superior. No ifs, ands, or buts. My main reason for this is the strength of teams like Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech. The SEC has Florida, Alabama, and Georgia, but I honestly don't think they compare. It would be a coin toss between Texas/Florida or Oklahoma/Texas. With that said, I think Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech would all beat the Tide. Let me stop the rambling: it's the Big 12's year.
3. Most teams would be happy to go to the SEC Championship Game at 11-1. Not Alabama. The Tide have lost an amazing six straight games to the Auburn Tigers. As great as this season has been it will be extremely disappointing if Saban's crew loses to their arch rival...again. Tuberville has had a nightmare season at Auburn and knows a win can bring some sort of salvation. Two things make me think this will be a close one. 1. Alabama has not been pummeling opponents like Florida and Oklahoma and 2. Auburn nearly beat a good Georgia team. If the Tigers can keep it close with defense then maybe a victory might happen. But I don't see it happening. Auburn will be close. Very. But again, Bama will do just enough to move on...and that's all that matters.
Final: Alabama 24-20
4. I have not looked at bowl projections, but I really, really hope that Utah does not play the ACC champion in their BCS bowl game. I say this because people want to see the underdog go against the juggernaut. Remember the Boise State/Oklahoma game? How could you forget! Sure, Hawaii got embarrassed last year, but in the end one Boise State game every five years makes putting a mid major team in the BCS all worth it.
5. I am sure this has been touched upon by a couple of people. Maybe a couple more. I do not understand for the slightest second why Oklahoma is said to be the team that will get in the BCS National Championship game. Yes, they beat a good Texas Tech team 65-21. I 100 percent agree that is acceptable to make a riot about the Sooners' win. OU looked good. Real good. But, but keep in mind that people are now saying they should go to the BCS National Championship game over a team THEY LOST TO. Reread that. That is all that needs to be known. Texas 45-35. That's it. No debate needs to be started. How can you possibly say OU should go over Texas? They beat them! Remember 2001 when Florida State went over Miami-Florida to the national championship game? How unjust was that?! Let's not repeat it again.
Monday Night prediction: 34-29 Packers over Saints
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Against All Odds: Lee Drives LSU to Victory
In my lifetime I really wonder if I will ever, 100 percent comprehend, what Jarrett Lee pulled off at Jordan-Hare Stadium Saturday night.
When all the dust has settled and this game is looked back at in 15 years it will not be the ending of the home winning streak in the LSU/Auburn series that will be remembered, but more importantly the emergence of an LSU quarterback. The birth of a leader who lead his team to victory, despite going against all odds.
Lets try and put into perspective what Lee accomplished last night.
One year ago on October 20, 2007, LSU trailed Auburn 17-7 at half in Tiger Stadium. Even with Glenn Dorsey, Matt Flynn, Jacob Hester, and Early Doucet on the roster, victory for the Tigers still seemed like a long shot. LSU did win that day in one of the most exciting games in LSU history. Flynn-to-Byrd is etched in the minds of Tiger faithful forever.
Now fast forward to about a year later; last night, and you had an even more overwhelming situation. LSU was down 14-3 at the half, at Auburn, with inexperienced Jarrett Lee and Andrew Hatch taking turns at quarterback. To top off this daunting task the starting quarterback, Andrew Hatch, went out of the game with a head injury in the third quarter.
With Hatch out for the game early in the third quarter, Lee was thrown back under center. In the first half Lee threw 5 passes, all were incomplete, including one that lead to a costly, six Auburn points.
Was LSU's back against the wall? You bet. Was Auburn one score away from putting this game away? For sure. Did seeing Hatch go out injured then replaced by Lee scare the bajezuz out of many LSU fans? Of course.
This was not an ordinary victory for LSU. Yes, you could say this was essentially the same group of men who lead countless come from behind victories last year, but still one main difference sticks out: Jarrett Lee.
A 19-year old redshirt freshman from Texas was supposed to lead the Tigers to victory? Les Miles believed and so did offensive coordinator Gary Crowton.
In one quarter LSU transformed a 14-3 deficit into a 17-14 lead. Behind play calling that had one of the best defenses guessing play after play, LSU switched from a first half team that was a deer-in-headlights to the swaggering, SEC juggernaut that we have all come to know.
Lee's first touchdown to Chris Mitchell for 39 yards gave LSU players one thing: hope.
The second touchdown, Keiland Williams's half-back pass to Demetrius Byrd gave the LSU players another thing: their swagger.
And finally, LSU's winning touchdown, a short screen pass from Lee to Brandon LaFell, gave the LSU team their biggest missing ingredient: confidence.
There are various reasons as to why LSU came out on top last night at Jordan-Hare stadium. Too many to count, too many to state. But the main one, the one everyone saw is Jarrett Lee.
On September 20, 2008, Jarrett Lee transformed from a quarterback prodigy to a starting SEC quarterback.
Welcome to manhood Lee.
Thursday, February 14, 2008
The Unthinkable is Now a Reality: Part 5 (of 9)
October 20
#18 Auburn
Following a tough Kentucky loss, LSU had no time to mourn as Auburn was coming into Tiger Stadium. Auburn was a team coming in with 2 losses, both early in the season. Tuberville's crew was definitely underrated. More importantly no one on the Auburn squad was the least bit worried to be playing in Tiger Stadium. They were (quote), "looking forward to it."
Again, much like the Florida game, LSU got jumped on right from the get-go. LSU was fortunate to not trail 14-0 when it was 10-0. I will admit I thought LSU had pushed their luck too far this time.
Again down 17-7 at the half?! It was too much gambling. LSU was going to pay the price for playing lousy first half football.
Then again just like clockwork the Tigers rallied in the second half. Slowly the Bayou Bengals chipped away at an Auburn lead. With 2 field goals LSU trailed by the score of 17-13, but as a fan this was aggravating as LSU was missing opportunities in the red zone too often.
After some gutsy play calling on fourth down and a tremendous endzone dive by Jacob Hester, LSU took a 20-17 lead. The Bengals were in control.
Then Auburn gave it back to LSU who was driving in for the kill. Les opted not to go for a 4th and 1 when up 20-17. A touchdown would of sealed it, but a field goal helped.
23-17, Auburn was 83 yards away. The defense was playing stellar.
Key word: was.
Auburn drove the field and scored a TD that stun Tiger Nation. 24-23. LSU was on it's heels, but like he's done time and time again. Matt Flynn drove that LSU squad down the field like time was an irrelevant issue.
Play after play, tick after tick, LSU drove down the field methodically for the game-winning field goal...
Then the clock began to really tick. Under 20 seconds. LSU needs to call a timeout! 8 seconds! In a moment I'll never forget, Flynn called hike and threw one in the corner of the end zone for the Byrdman.
Absolutely incredible catch. Single most exciting play I've ever witnessed in my LSU football viewing days.
Final: 30 Tigers 24 Plainsmen/Tigers/War Eagles/Choose a Mascot!
Play of the Game: It was a hell of a gutsy call. I hear a lot of criticism on Les making that decision, but please we all know more than 1 second should of remained on the clock. Nonetheless, Matt Flynn's perfect throw was only half of that play. Demetrius "Birdman" Byrd had to make a play around the cornerback of Auburn who was all over him. Byrd caught that ball with one hand!
Note: I do not have too kind of feelings for Chaz Ramsey, the offensive lineman responsible for the cheap shot chop block on Glen Dorsey. That move could of ended Dorsey's career, but what it did do was greatly hinder Dorsey for the rest of the season. Dorsey was not near 100% until the Ohio State game.
Karma works it's way around. Ramsey will get his sentence.
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Rebuttal to Pete Fiutak's "Hail Miles"
As I was searching the web yesterday, I visited one of my favorite college football web sites (http://www.collegefootballnews.com/). I came across the weekly Cavalcade of Whimsy by Pete Fiutak (http://cfn.scout.com/2/693681.html).
For the most part I agreed with Fiutak's observations...for the most part.
After reading Fiutak's thoughts about LSU coach Les Miles's late game decision against Auburn, I could see that Fiutak, much like many other writers, is still confused on Miles's call.
Fiutak's entire claim is based around how "unnecessary" it was for Les Miles to take a shot at the end zone.
I have got two words for you Pete: Colt David. Those two words together are what makes Miles's call the right one. Why? On the season Colt David is 14 of 19, which is not that bad...until you look at the fact that during LSU's last home game against Florida he was 0 for 2, and on the season David has never made a field goal past the 40 yard line. Had LSU needed to kick a field goal it would of been from about 40 yards out. In the eyes of many, Colt David is seen as an inconsistent kicker.
I hope you realize these thoughts had to be in Miles's head in the closing moments of the game.
Furthermore you make the claim the call was downright "stupid." Referring to something as "stupid" is clearly a statement with no validity. When I think of "stupid" I think of two grade school kids arguing over whose favorite basketball player is the best. When one kid says his favorite player is better, the other kid simply states, "I don't like him. He's stupid." There's no substance to saying the call was just "stupid."
Now let me say, LSU should of managed the clock late in the game much better. As we all know that did not happen. Even so, Miles wanted to take two chances at scoring rather than one. He did not want to put all his chips on Colt David winning the game just right yet.
Miles basic thinking was, "There is time for one more play before the field goal. Let's take a shot at the end zone. If we don't get anything we'll go for the field goal. Let's just try it."
Well his attempt did work. Now I am sure it's been said countless times, but when Demetrius Byrd hit the ground after his TD catch at least 3 seconds were left on the clock. So what if the pass was tipped? There easily would of been time left in the game. How about an interception? In single coverage that is not nearly as likely. It was a small risk.
But if you are going to sit there and play the "What-If Game," how about this: what if there was a bad snap for the field goal attempt? What if Colt David shanked it?
And finally the reason I felt inclined to write my rebuttal to your "Hail Miles" paragraph Pete, is for the simple fact that you fall into the category of the many people who consider Les Miles to be stupid. Face it, Pete, you think the guy is not that great of a coach and is only winning off of pure luck, or as you would like to say it "stupid" calls. Now granted, I do not think Miles is a god, but I will give him his credit when it is due. (Cough! Auburn game.) I have heard all the excuses regarding how Les Miles's being a good coach is overrated. "Come on the coach has gotten so lucky this year. He coaches LSU! How can't you win there?"
Pete, I do not know why guys like you continue to shy away from giving Miles any credit. Is it because of the way he comes across during interviews; that long, slow speech of his? Or maybe it's the hat? One thing is for sure Les Miles is not an idiot (Degree in Economics from Michigan), and his call against Auburn was not "stupid."
It was gamble, that can separate the good coaches from the great ones.
