Looking Back on My College Football Predictions

Making predictions has never been my best asset, but still it remains something I hope to get better at. With that said, I would like to look back at the predictions I made at the beginning of this 2009 college football season.

Then: Florida WILL go undefeated and they WILL win the National Championship.
(I keep looking and when I really evaluate this team I do not see them tripping up once.)

Now: It really is strange when you think about how the Tebow Show is over. I was confident the Gators would prevail over the Crimson Tide. All summer and year there was so much certainty that the Gators were going to win the title. I bought into it. Sure the offense was stagnant in some games, but the team kept winning. Tebow would not fall. And then it happened. Alabama hit Florida in the mouth like no one has ever done against Tebow. In 60 minutes of football it was all over.


Then: By the end of October the California Bears WILL no longer be in the dark horse National Championship talk.
(I have been hearing all summer how this Cal team is going to make some noise. I do not see this year being any different from the other years we, the fans, were lead to believe this.)

Now: I could not have been more right about this prediction. I saw this coming from 10 miles away. At 3-0 the Golden Bears traveled to Oregon only to lose 42-3. The next week the team lost their homecoming to USC 30-3. Poof! Two games, two losses, National Title talk dead. After all the hype California finished the season with 4 losses and an invite to the Poinsetta Bowl to play Utah. Ouch.


Then: Ohio State WILL beat USC on September 12th.
(Matt Barkley is 18 years old. He turns 19 on September 8th. He has never started a college game. I do not think in his second game of the year he will be able to pull out a victory in front of 100,000+ screaming fans. I do not care how good he was in high school and I'm sure he will have a fine college career. But at the end of the day I do not think with such little experience he will be able to beat the Buckeyes.)

Now: They had them! Ohio State had USC! The crowd was there, the team was there, but the Buckeyes could not stop freshman Matt Barkley from driving down the field and pulling out an 18-15 victory. Even worse, Terrelle Pryor, the proclaimed savior, turned the ball over on downs with a minute left. Wasn't Pryor brought in to win games like these?


Then: Baylor behind the nation's best kept secret, quarterback Robert Griffin, will pull off a big upset this year, but Baylor will not going bowling this year.

Now: Poor Baylor. Had Griffin not torn his ACL in week three against Northwestern State this team would of gone bowling. Griffin was already putting up some ridiculous numbers. Baylor was 2-1 when Griffin was playing, when he was not they were 1-7. Let's hope Griffin comes back strong in 2010.


Then: Miami Florida's head coach Randy Shannon will be fired at the end of the year as his team will again under perform. The Hurricanes will finish with 5 losses.

Now: What do I really know? Geez I never thought Miami would start the season the way they did. So what if the Hurricanes got screwed out of a quality bowl game, Shannon's crew still finished 9-3. More importantly The U is on the rise behind Jacory Harris.


Then: Michigan will not lose more than 4 games.

Now: Another "great" call by me. I thought I was on track when Michigan started 4-0, including a win over a "good" Notre Dame team. In the team's final 8 games the Wolverines went 1-7. RichRod has one more season to right the ship or he will be unemployed. It's still appalling to think that UM is 8-16 in the past two years! Despite that awful record, freshman QB Tate Forcier does look like the real deal.


Then: Once again Texas will just sneak by Oklahoma State. Much like the Fiesta Bowl, Colt McCoy will lead Texas for a late score at the end of the game to beat the Cowboys.

Now: How am I so bad at predicting? This game was never close. Texas destroyed the Cowboys 41-14. My only salvation is knowing it was only 3-0 Texas after the first quarter. That's not bad, right?


Then: Oklahoma beats Texas. Oklahoma loses two games. Texas goes to the Big 12 Championship and then the National Championship.

Now: This was about a half and half. I was right about Texas winning the Big 12 and heading to the National Championship, but on the other side I was completely wrong. Oklahoma lost five games (not two) and the Sooners did not beat Texas (it was close, but they lost 16-13). Keep in mind there's no telling how this Oklahoma team does if Sam Bradford doesn't get injured the first week.


Then: Notre Dame will be getting a BCS bowl after they finish the season with only 2 losses. And yes they will lose to USC again.

Now: You know when a bad car crash happens you tell yourself not to look, but you still do? That's EXACTLY what these predictions are like. They are so off, but at the same time I can not stop reading them. Short and sweet - I was right about ND falling to USC yet again, but the whole BCS talk is disturbing to think about it. After the USC loss the wheels really started coming off the wagon. The four game losing streak to end the season (Navy, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Stanford) was pathetic. But because of the team's lousy play they were "rewarded" with the hidden gem of the college football world - Brian Kelly.


Then: Alabama will lose at the most 2 games during the regular season. Ole Miss will lose only one when the Bengals come into town. Ole Miss will go to the SEC Championship Game.

Now: FAIL! Alabama never lost a game and the LSU did not beat Ole Miss. Even better Ole Miss never went to the SEC Championship Game. Wow these predictions only get worse. Also I am guilty, I did start to believe Ole Miss was legit.


Then: LSU will have their swagger back this year, but a very hard schedule will keep them out of the SEC Championship Game.

Now: Meh. A tough schedule was a big reason LSU did not qualify for the SEC Championship along with a number of other things such as erratic playcalling, an erroneous missed interception against Alabama, and the ultimate brain fart against Ole Miss. But with all that said LSU could of found itself in a BCS bowl had Les Miles not gone brain dead in the waning seconds against Ole Miss. Okay new subject that still gets me mad.


Then: Rutgers will not win the Big East. Pittsburgh will take the conference and the coveted BCS bowl bid.

Now: I was so close! Rutgers never lived up to expectations so that whole "BCS berth" talk was flushed down the toilet early on. As far as Pittsburgh goes they had a 21 point lead at home on an undefeated Cincinnati team. Even worse they had a six point lead with a minute half left. The one time the defense needed to step up they failed.


Then: West Virginia will have 5 losses this year. Speculation will begin about whether Bill Stewart is the right guy for the job.

Now: This one surprised me. Really thought WV would take a step back with Pat White gone. The team only has three losses going into a Gator Bowl match up with Florida State. If the Mountineers can pull out a victory a 10 win season will silence some critics...for now.


Then: Alabama will beat Virginia Tech 31-14. Tech has a defense, but the offense will not be able to do anything against Alabama's defense.

Now: This game was a lot closer than I expected. It was not until the 4th quarter that the Tide pulled away. Once again Alabama used the first game of the season to send a message.


Then: Texas A&M has another losing season and surprisingly gives Mike Sherman one more year.

Now: A&M finished with a 6-6 record meaning they barely missed out on having another losing season. The Aggies showed great potential against the Longhorns when they nearly pulled off the upset of the year. Having QB Jerrod Johnson back along with freshman running back Christine Michael will give some fans a reason to give A&M a sleeper label for 2010.


Then: Dan LeFevour. He's what some would call the "poor man's Tim Tebow." He will lead Central Michigan to the MAC Title and to go along with that Houston will win the Conference-USA.

Now: Just when I thought I had no hope I pull this one out! LeFevour continued to set records his entire senior year. To cement a great career LeFevour led CMU to a MAC Title over Ohio. On the other hand I was awfully close with Houston, but East Carolina beat them in the CUSA Title game 38-32. So close!


Then: Sorry Archie Griffin, but you no longer have the record by yourself. Tim Tebow will win the Heisman trophy.

Now: At the beginning of the year it seemed destined for the trophy to go to either Sam Bradford or Tim Tebow, instead Alabama's Mark Ingram stole the show. Ingram won the closest race ever by beating Stanford's Toby Gerhart by only 28 points.

Then: Oregon looked pretty impressive in their bowl victory against Oklahoma State so I will have to take the Ducks. Look for Oregon to end Boise State's 49-game regular-season home winning streak. It will be decided by one score.

Now: You know what would of been funny? Had I predicted a fight at the end of the game. Sadly I didn't. Even worse I was dead wrong about this prediction. Boise State dominated Oregon 19-8.

Enjoy the bowl season, and yes, I too am very excited for the San Diego County Credit Union Bowl. And by the way how far away are we from having a very awkward bowl name? For instance, the Viagara Bowl, the Good Housekeeping Magazine Bowl, the Playtex Bowl, or (drum roll)the Beggin' Strips Bowl.

Trust me we are not that far away!

2009 College Football Bold Predictions

This is it. After what has seemed like 10,000 days of waiting college football is back. Thursday night meaningful games will finally kick off, but before that day comes let me lay out my predictions for the season.

Florida WILL go undefeated and they WILL win the National Championship.
(I keep looking and when I really evaluate this team I do not see them tripping up once.)

By the end of October the California Bears WILL no longer be in the dark horse National Championship talk.
(I have been hearing all summer how this Cal team is going to make some noise. I do not see this year being any different from the other years we, the fans, were lead to believe this.)

Ohio State WILL beat USC on September 12th.
(Matt Barkley is 18 years old. He turns 19 on September 8th. He has never started a college game. I do not think in his second game of the year he will be able to pull out a victory in front of 100,000+ screaming fans. I do not care how good he was in high school and I'm sure he will have a fine college career. But at the end of the day I do not think with such little experience he will be able to beat the Buckeyes.)

Baylor behind the nation's best kept secret, quarterback Robert Griffin, will pull off a big upset this year, but Baylor will not going bowling this year.

Miami Florida's head coach Randy Shannon will be fired at the end of the year as his team will again under perform. The Hurricanes will finish with 5 losses.

Michigan will not lose more than 4 games.

Once again Texas will just sneak by Oklahoma State. Much like the Fiesta Bowl, Colt McCoy will lead Texas for a late score at the end of the game to beat the Cowboys.

Oklahoma beats Texas. Oklahoma loses two games. Texas goes to the Big 12 Championship and then the National Championship.

Notre Dame will be getting a BCS bowl after they finish the season with only 2 losses. And yes they will lose to USC again.

Alabama will lose at the most 2 games during the regular season. Ole Miss will lose only one when the Bengals come into town. Ole Miss will go to the SEC Championship Game.

LSU will have their swagger back this year, but a very hard schedule will keep them out of the SEC Championship Game.

Rutgers will not win the Big East. Pittsburgh will take the conference and the coveted BCS bowl bid.

West Virginia will have 5 losses this year. Speculation will begin about whether Bill Stewart is the right guy for the job.

Alabama will beat Virginia Tech 31-14. Tech has a defense, but the offense will not be able to do anything against Alabama's defense.

Texas A&M has another losing season and surprisingly gives Mike Sherman one more year.

Dan LeFevour. He's what some would call the "poor man's Tim Tebow." He will lead Central Michigan to the MAC Title and to go along with that Houston will win the Conference-USA.

Sorry Archie Griffin, but you no longer have the record by yourself. Tim Tebow will win the Heisman trophy.

Oregon looked pretty impressive in their bowl victory against Oklahoma State so I will have to take the Ducks. Look for Oregon to end Boise State's 49-game regular-season home winning streak. It will be decided by one score.

Well that's all I have. In all honesty I'm the "Jeff George" of making predictions. Average, but nothing more.

Geaux Tigers!







Email me MM

The Ultimate 2009 SEC West Breakdown

Earlier this summer I posted my thoughts on the SEC East. I stated I would give my analysis for the SEC West. Well, finally I have an SEC West prediction for the 2009 season, but this time things are a bit different. Instead of me breaking down the SEC West I let my dad spread his thoughts.

Enjoy.

________________________________________

I need a fix. It has been seven months since I’ve watched a live LSU football game and my patience is waning. National recruiting day anticipation and the post signing euphoria carried me through February and into early March. March Madness was good until LSU drew North Carolina in the second round. College baseball season was great – hey, we won a National Championship, but that was over in late June. The final blow was discovering that someone (hopefully inadvertently) erased the Georgia Tech Game on the DVR. I am left with my imagination.

Lately, my only relief comes from listening to Bill King of Rivals Radio analyze who has the best three deep roster. Beside that bit of fascinating analysis, we get an hourly call from an Auburn or Tennessee hopeful asking Bill to confirm that they could really be better than all of the prognosticators are saying. “We had a great spring, our conditioning is going well and our coaches have great discipline – can we win 8 or 9 games?” Nope, sorry boys, you are in the darkness. Just about every fan base in the NCAA has experienced it at some point, certainly we have at LSU. You are going to be thrown into the pits, forced to grind and gnash your teeth.

Twenty-four days and a wake up and it will be over for me. LSU kicks off on the West Coast with Washington, Ty Willingham’s latest debacle. Meanwhile, I have decided to do a bit of prognosticating myself. Here is my shot at handicapping the SEC West. Being an engineer, I decided to take an analytical approach. Not that it will make my projections any more accurate as the one thing I have learned over the years is that predicting sporting outcomes is a crapshoot. You throw it down and walk away. Here it goes.

I have broken my analysis into five categories, each weighted relatively evenly. This includes the

1. athletic quality of the roster using historical recruiting as the benchmark,

2. quality of the coaching staff,

3. returning players in leadership positions,

4. key difference makers or star quality athletes,

5. and finally -non-measureables (things I just have a feel for).

Strength of Recruiting

There are always exceptions, but you can get a pretty good feel for the quality of school’s roster by simply analyzing their historical recruiting success. If you look at the top schools in the country, determined by ranking services such as ESPN/USA Today, you will find a fairly close correlation with the school’s success; and the recent recruiting success as determined by ranking services. It is that simple. Sure, the recruiting rankings often miss on perspective athletes and they often under or over estimate a team’s overall position, but they are generally very closely aligned to how a team performs and finishes. For purposes of this evaluation, I just picked one service and looked at the rankings over the past five years. This is what I found utilizing the Rivals website rankings from 2004 until 2009:

Rivals Recruiting Ranking by Year

2004: Alabama (15), LSU (2), Auburn (21), Ole Miss (30), Arkansas (22), Miss. State (62)

2005: Alabama (18), LSU (22), Auburn (13), Ole Miss (30), Arkansas (24), Miss. State (33)

2006: Alabama (11), LSU (7), Auburn (10), Ole Miss (16), Arkansas (26), Miss. State (44)

2007: Alabama (10), LSU (4), Auburn (7), Ole Miss (27), Arkansas (31), Miss. State (39)

2008: Alabama (1), LSU (11), Auburn (20), Ole Miss (29), Arkansas (36), Miss. State (44)

2009: Alabama (1), LSU (2), Auburn (19), Ole Miss (18), Arkansas (16), Miss. State (25)

Based upon this analysis, you would have to say that Alabama and LSU likely have the most athletic rosters. Auburn should be third followed by Ole Miss and Arkansas in a coin toss and Mississippi State bringing up the rear. I think this is fairly accurate, but I believe Ole Miss is understated in their positional rankings. Either last year was a total anomaly or they have recruited far better than Rivals predicted because they appeared to be as athletic as any team they faced in 2008, and then some.

Quality of Coaching Staff

From my standpoint, ranking the coaching staffs is really subjective. I don’t have access to anything other than my TV Set and the Internet. I don’t get to attend practices, talk to people who are in and around these campuses, so I am really going by what I read and personal observation. There are many that feel Saban is the best coach in the SEC West, and perhaps the country. Bobby Petrino is looked upon as an offensive guru. Neither one of them did too well when they ventured into the NFL so perhaps they are not what they are made up to be. Houston Nutt has a great reputation for doing more with less. Les Miles is not viewed positively by the press and the other two guys are not even on the radar yet.

So I am left with my own book of thoughts. In my opinion, I think Saban is a great program manager and perhaps excels above everyone else when it comes to transformational leadership. He is a Lee Iacocca type when it comes to building and changing culture, but he is prone to error like all humans. He pulled a few stinkers in Baton Rouge in his previous gig and I am guessing those same mishaps are in store for the Bama Nation. Houston Nutt has never been to the mountain. It seems to me he has not proven anything yet other than he is a smart guy that can motivate a team through stretches. Miles did a great job in his first three years in Baton Rouge, but last year was not his best effort, for whatever reason.

From my limited view, I just don’t see any differentiation here. Any one of these four coaches can do it given the right set of circumstances and players. I am calling this a wash.

Returning Players in Leadership Roles

Senior leadership is always a huge factor in success. No one wins without chemistry and chemistry usually starts with your seniors. No senior leadership inevitably leads to under performance and high quality leadership results in the opposite.
Last year’s LSU team, from the outside at least, seemed to be lacking in this area. We had some great players and good guys, but I don’t think they established the culture and mindset that was needed for success. This year’s seniors may be exceptional. Getting Ciron Black, Charles Scott and Brandon Lafell to postpone the NFL was obviously a boost. These are the guys that are going to keep the team together. Alabama lost a few great leaders, guys that made a difference last year. Who knows if they can be replaced? Ole Miss has most of their roster back, so I would have to assume they will be okay in that category.

My call here goes with LSU. I know I am a homer, but I think that guys like Ciron Black just don’t come along very often.

Difference Makers in Key Roles

As was reinforced to the LSU faithful last year – no quarterback, no team. It is that simple. You don’t have to be an all American, but you have to show up and make the plays when it counts. John Parker Wilson was seemingly nothing special athletically, but that guy made all of the plays throughout the year. Javon Snead is just flat out good. He made a couple of throws in the LSU game that were world class, and he showed up when the bell rang.

How important was Alabama’s nose tackle. Nobody could move that guy off his line and hence, nobody could consistently run on the Tide. Take away Cody and Alabama is a different team.

Both Cody and Snead are back, but new play makers will emerge in the SEC. Whatever team has the most playmakers will have an advantage. Based upon what I saw last year, I give this edge to Ole Miss and Snead (along with Hardy and the rest of that roster). Alabama and LSU should be okay and Arkansas is somewhat unknown. Ole Miss gets the edge mainly based on Snead’s success last year.

Non-Measurables (gut feel)

Now this is where I normally get into trouble. Non-measurables include emotions. Emotions lead to collective brain farts, like the Auburn guy on Rivals Radio that is trying to convince himself that by working hard and having better team discipline the Tigers/War Chickens/Plainsmen will just be good enough to win. Sorry – stay in your hole.

Here is the thumb nail summary:

Everything seemed to fall in place for Alabama last year. That doesn’t normally happen two years in a row. They will have to earn it this year.

LSU had the opposite type of year. Nothing seemed to go right, so you would think that we are due for a few breaks. Personally, I think we used them all up in 2007; we can’t count on the football Gods this year. Also, our schedule is brutal. If we didn’t have to play Bama, Ole Miss and Georgia on the road and host a Florida team that Alabama and Ole Miss dodge, we might have a chance. Alas, that is too much to overcome.

Arkansas is the team that might just sneak up and steal the whole thing. Mallet can throw the ball and they have a bunch of players coming back. But there is an old saying; everything back from nothing is still nothing.

So that leaves Ole Miss. Everyone, including myself, expects them to get caught reading their clippings and gag on themselves. But I got a feeling (emotions) that this is going to be Nutts year to show the world just how good of coach he is.

My call:

1. Ole Miss
2. LSU
3. Alabama
4. Arkansas
5. Auburn
6. Miss State