What We Learned About LSU Against Mississippi State

LSU beats Mississippi State 29-7

For the 2010 season the LSU Tigers have been a box of chocolate team. Each half of football you do not know what you are going to get. After an impressive 29-7 win against the Bulldogs of Starksville I had 4 main points I wanted to address about the Tigers.

1. LSU has a defense

The one thing fans came away from the LSU win smiling about was the LSU defense. For the first time in a few years the LSU defense really looked like it could be a force. On paper a 29-7 victory does not seem like that big of a margin, but if one were to have watched the game it would be realized just how much the LSU defense had the game in control. Outside of only giving up 7 points, the LSU defense also picked off Mississippi State 5 different times. The biggest thing that stands out about this unit is their ability to disguise blitzs and cause havoc for the quarterback. Even with a struggling offense, having a good defense will keep LSU in big games. On paper right now I think LSU has a chance to beat Florida because of their defense. Same goes for Alabama. If you have a good defense you can stay in games.


2. Drake Nevis is a beast

My former Communication and Gender classmate is ripping through offensive lines. In 2009 LSU struggled immensely with the pass rush. This year because of the maturity of players like Drake Nevis the Tigers defense is able to get a consistent pass rush and in turn allow for defensive coordinator John Chavis to send in more blitzs. Last game Nevis had an interception and nine tackles. Defensive tackles do not get nine tackles a game, that just shows you how special of a player Nevis is. He is as important to LSU's defense as Patrick Peterson.


3. Gary Crowton has the creativity of, well, someone not creative.

I will continue to hope he turns things around. I will continue to hope the offense starts, well, being more productive. But I am also a realist. The offensive game plan for LSU is all too simple week in and week out. Crowton, the so-called Wizard, continues to run the same predictable plays. I joke with my friends that Crowton has six pieces of notebook paper. On each paper, written in crayon, he has six plays. Honestly when you watch a game that seems like what's going on. All too often there will be a situation where LSU will line up on a crucial third down and as fan you realize what the play is. So if you the fan know the play, what do you think the opposing defensive coordinator knows? THE PLAY! One moment in Saturday's game sticks out the most. It was 3rd and Goal at the three. LSU had run the ball the previous two plays with Ridley. On this third down, the Tigers come out in a I-Form with ZERO WIDE RECEIVERS. Mississippi State packs everyone in and, gasp, LSU surprisingly decides to run with Ridley to the left. And surprisingly LSU is stopped for a one yard loss. Everyone in the stadium, including Mike the Tiger, knew the play. THAT'S A BIG PROBLEM. I have found no reason to think Gary Crowton will address these issues.


4. Offense progressed as game went on

The offense sputtered in the first half. Despite numerous times where the Tigers had good field position, LSU continued to get field goals. With that said, LSU did show progress in the second half. It was 12-0 when Mississippi State, with their back up quarterback now in the game, just scored. At 12-7 the next drive was crucial for Jordan Jefferson and the offense. Jefferson drove the team down for seven big points. Later on in the third he scored another touchdown to put LSU up 26-7. It might not have been much, but one half removed from 4 field goals I do take it as a positive sign when the offense puts up two touchdowns. Hopefully against West Virginia the team can build on that.

College Football Analysis After Week 8

Sorry for taking so long to get another post out. I was actually kidnapped by a wild pack of bandits who desperately wanted me to turn over my 2001 Camry to them.

I would not give in to their threats...


12 Alabama 10 Tennessee

For much of year the Crimson Tide were looked at by all as the most complete team. The defense was one of the best and the offense had a running game close to unstoppable. The best luck anyone had was South Carolina who fell 20-6. No one had ever hung with Alabama. No one had ever really made the Tide fight to the end.

That was until Tennessee.

Prior to this game not much of a chance was given to the Vols, but after the 12-10 score stood Kiffin and crew got respect. Yet I'm positive his team is still very unhappy with the outcome. It always seems the importance of special teams is pushed behind offense and defense, yet as the UT/Bama game shows you the special teams is just as important as any of those three. 3 missed field goals, including a potentially game winning 44 yarder with 4 seconds left. Unfortunately for the Vols Terrence "Train" Cody broke through the line and destroyed the Orange Crew's dreams of ruining Bama's season. It was interesting to note that once in field goal range Kiffin thought it was a gimme. Gary Anderson is the NFL's all-time leading scorer. If he was kicking a 44 yarder in his prime I would still be nervous. This was a college kicker! Point is UT needed to get closer. The fact that Kiffin did not have the urge to move further ahead only highlights even more the little confidence he has in QB Jonathan Crompton.

In two big games this year (Florida and Alabama) Kiffin has managed to put together a very impressive game plan. His teams were very heavy underdogs yet they still had a chance to win in the end. Once Kiffin starts really getting some athletes Tennessee will be a force.

So what did we learn about Alabama? First, they are vulnerable. They, like every other team this year, do have flaws. Biggest thing is QB Greg McElroy still has some maturing to do. Tennessee knew Mark Ingram was Bama's biggest weapon and they neutralized him much of the game. McElroy has to be able to pick up the slack. Second, despite not playing the best game Alabama found a way to win. That is something that needs to be noted. Sooner or later there will be a game that Alabama finds themselves in where they are not playing there best, yet they have to fight to the end. This was that. Even when the odds where against them the team hung in there and blocked a field goal to, as Cody says, "save the season."


15 Iowa 13 Michigan State

I love when the claims come out that a one loss USC team would go over an undefeated Iowa team. Wow. Can someone please give the Hawkeyes some love? I can only help but think the only reason USC would go over Iowa is because I don't know maybe the fact that USC is in Los Angeles and Iowa is, well, in the middle of Iowa. Anyway onto the game.

In yet another Big 10 slug fest the Hawkeyes found themselves behind (13-9) late in the fourth quarter at Spartan Stadium. With a mere two seconds the Iowa Hawkeyes managed to convert a 4th and Goal that yet again resulted in a heart attacks across Iowa. Iowa is not the most glamorous team, but in all honesty few teams have a better knack at finding a way to win than the Hawkeyes. Look at there schedule right now. In week 1 they blocked two field goals by Northern Iowa in the final seconds to preserve a 17-16 victory. Okay so it was only Northern Iowa. September 26 Iowa triumphs over Penn State 21-10...in Happy Valley. And there's the home win over Michigan 30-28 and the road victory at Wisconsin where the team came from behind to win 20-10. And finally there's this victory at Michigan State on the last play. How is that not an impressive resume?! The Big 10 is a lot stronger than it was two years ago. I can only hope the voters see this.

There are four games remaining for the Iowa Hawkeyes. Sure they could trip up against Indiana, Northwestern, or a solid Minnesota but let's me honest the biggest remaining test is a November 17th showdown in Columbus against Ohio State. It will be tough, but again hasn't the season been like that the whole time?


31 LSU 10 Auburn

LSU fans have waited an awful long time to finally see some offense. After a dreadful showing in a 13-3 loss to Florida, LSU came out firing on all cylinders against the War Eagles. Unlike every other game this year, LSU punched the ball in for touchdowns (not field goals) right from the get-go. Had it not been for Jefferson's fumble in the first quarter it would of 21-0 after one quarter. And finally Russell Shepard got to see pay dirt. On a 69 yard scamper Shepard burst through the War Eagle defense and put the score at 31-3. Also worth noting is the LSU defense. Each game Defensive Coordinator John Chavis's crew looks better and better. LSU fans can only hope the Tigers can keep this complete game effort as LSU gets ready for a November 7th showdown against the Alabama Crimson Tide.

Jordan Jefferson played the best game of his career Saturday. His ability to get better every week is what makes this LSU team so potentially dangerous. If he can really get a handle on this LSU offense like he did against Auburn then watch out.

On the other side are the Auburn "Tigers". Through five games the War Eagles were 5-0 and hype began to form that maybe Auburn is better than we thought they were. After all there offense was running through everyone. Now fast forward to the present. First the War Eagles got dominated by Arkansas, then they lost at home to Kentucky who just lost their starting quarterback and finally they got dominated much worse than the score at Tiger Stadium against LSU. Auburn is currently 5-3 and you can not help but think that it might get worse. Auburn still has to play Ole Miss (this weekend), Georgia, and Alabama. Gene Chizik needs to get things under control before things really get chaotic.


29 Florida 19 Mississippi State

Something is not right in Gainesville. Prior to the season the Gators were touted as potentially the greatest team ever. Now granted most likely the team will go undefeated and win the national championship, but still it has to be noted how much the team is, well, struggling. It was a one score game going into the fourth quarter. Sure you can say that Bulldog coach Dan Mullen use to be Florida's offensive coordinator, but again this is supposed to be the greatest college football team ever. Tebow does not look like Tebow. He threw two pick sixes! Florida was fortunate to not have their interception in the fourth quarter overturned (the referees once again went brain dead), otherwise it would of be a one score game deep in the fourth quarter. Now I have to ask how does LSU's struggles against the Bulldogs look now? Maybe not so bad. If the Bulldogs took Florida to the brink you can not help but think that maybe, like Kiffin, once Mullen gets the athletes the wins will start happening.

The Ultimate 2009 SEC West Breakdown

Earlier this summer I posted my thoughts on the SEC East. I stated I would give my analysis for the SEC West. Well, finally I have an SEC West prediction for the 2009 season, but this time things are a bit different. Instead of me breaking down the SEC West I let my dad spread his thoughts.

Enjoy.

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I need a fix. It has been seven months since I’ve watched a live LSU football game and my patience is waning. National recruiting day anticipation and the post signing euphoria carried me through February and into early March. March Madness was good until LSU drew North Carolina in the second round. College baseball season was great – hey, we won a National Championship, but that was over in late June. The final blow was discovering that someone (hopefully inadvertently) erased the Georgia Tech Game on the DVR. I am left with my imagination.

Lately, my only relief comes from listening to Bill King of Rivals Radio analyze who has the best three deep roster. Beside that bit of fascinating analysis, we get an hourly call from an Auburn or Tennessee hopeful asking Bill to confirm that they could really be better than all of the prognosticators are saying. “We had a great spring, our conditioning is going well and our coaches have great discipline – can we win 8 or 9 games?” Nope, sorry boys, you are in the darkness. Just about every fan base in the NCAA has experienced it at some point, certainly we have at LSU. You are going to be thrown into the pits, forced to grind and gnash your teeth.

Twenty-four days and a wake up and it will be over for me. LSU kicks off on the West Coast with Washington, Ty Willingham’s latest debacle. Meanwhile, I have decided to do a bit of prognosticating myself. Here is my shot at handicapping the SEC West. Being an engineer, I decided to take an analytical approach. Not that it will make my projections any more accurate as the one thing I have learned over the years is that predicting sporting outcomes is a crapshoot. You throw it down and walk away. Here it goes.

I have broken my analysis into five categories, each weighted relatively evenly. This includes the

1. athletic quality of the roster using historical recruiting as the benchmark,

2. quality of the coaching staff,

3. returning players in leadership positions,

4. key difference makers or star quality athletes,

5. and finally -non-measureables (things I just have a feel for).

Strength of Recruiting

There are always exceptions, but you can get a pretty good feel for the quality of school’s roster by simply analyzing their historical recruiting success. If you look at the top schools in the country, determined by ranking services such as ESPN/USA Today, you will find a fairly close correlation with the school’s success; and the recent recruiting success as determined by ranking services. It is that simple. Sure, the recruiting rankings often miss on perspective athletes and they often under or over estimate a team’s overall position, but they are generally very closely aligned to how a team performs and finishes. For purposes of this evaluation, I just picked one service and looked at the rankings over the past five years. This is what I found utilizing the Rivals website rankings from 2004 until 2009:

Rivals Recruiting Ranking by Year

2004: Alabama (15), LSU (2), Auburn (21), Ole Miss (30), Arkansas (22), Miss. State (62)

2005: Alabama (18), LSU (22), Auburn (13), Ole Miss (30), Arkansas (24), Miss. State (33)

2006: Alabama (11), LSU (7), Auburn (10), Ole Miss (16), Arkansas (26), Miss. State (44)

2007: Alabama (10), LSU (4), Auburn (7), Ole Miss (27), Arkansas (31), Miss. State (39)

2008: Alabama (1), LSU (11), Auburn (20), Ole Miss (29), Arkansas (36), Miss. State (44)

2009: Alabama (1), LSU (2), Auburn (19), Ole Miss (18), Arkansas (16), Miss. State (25)

Based upon this analysis, you would have to say that Alabama and LSU likely have the most athletic rosters. Auburn should be third followed by Ole Miss and Arkansas in a coin toss and Mississippi State bringing up the rear. I think this is fairly accurate, but I believe Ole Miss is understated in their positional rankings. Either last year was a total anomaly or they have recruited far better than Rivals predicted because they appeared to be as athletic as any team they faced in 2008, and then some.

Quality of Coaching Staff

From my standpoint, ranking the coaching staffs is really subjective. I don’t have access to anything other than my TV Set and the Internet. I don’t get to attend practices, talk to people who are in and around these campuses, so I am really going by what I read and personal observation. There are many that feel Saban is the best coach in the SEC West, and perhaps the country. Bobby Petrino is looked upon as an offensive guru. Neither one of them did too well when they ventured into the NFL so perhaps they are not what they are made up to be. Houston Nutt has a great reputation for doing more with less. Les Miles is not viewed positively by the press and the other two guys are not even on the radar yet.

So I am left with my own book of thoughts. In my opinion, I think Saban is a great program manager and perhaps excels above everyone else when it comes to transformational leadership. He is a Lee Iacocca type when it comes to building and changing culture, but he is prone to error like all humans. He pulled a few stinkers in Baton Rouge in his previous gig and I am guessing those same mishaps are in store for the Bama Nation. Houston Nutt has never been to the mountain. It seems to me he has not proven anything yet other than he is a smart guy that can motivate a team through stretches. Miles did a great job in his first three years in Baton Rouge, but last year was not his best effort, for whatever reason.

From my limited view, I just don’t see any differentiation here. Any one of these four coaches can do it given the right set of circumstances and players. I am calling this a wash.

Returning Players in Leadership Roles

Senior leadership is always a huge factor in success. No one wins without chemistry and chemistry usually starts with your seniors. No senior leadership inevitably leads to under performance and high quality leadership results in the opposite.
Last year’s LSU team, from the outside at least, seemed to be lacking in this area. We had some great players and good guys, but I don’t think they established the culture and mindset that was needed for success. This year’s seniors may be exceptional. Getting Ciron Black, Charles Scott and Brandon Lafell to postpone the NFL was obviously a boost. These are the guys that are going to keep the team together. Alabama lost a few great leaders, guys that made a difference last year. Who knows if they can be replaced? Ole Miss has most of their roster back, so I would have to assume they will be okay in that category.

My call here goes with LSU. I know I am a homer, but I think that guys like Ciron Black just don’t come along very often.

Difference Makers in Key Roles

As was reinforced to the LSU faithful last year – no quarterback, no team. It is that simple. You don’t have to be an all American, but you have to show up and make the plays when it counts. John Parker Wilson was seemingly nothing special athletically, but that guy made all of the plays throughout the year. Javon Snead is just flat out good. He made a couple of throws in the LSU game that were world class, and he showed up when the bell rang.

How important was Alabama’s nose tackle. Nobody could move that guy off his line and hence, nobody could consistently run on the Tide. Take away Cody and Alabama is a different team.

Both Cody and Snead are back, but new play makers will emerge in the SEC. Whatever team has the most playmakers will have an advantage. Based upon what I saw last year, I give this edge to Ole Miss and Snead (along with Hardy and the rest of that roster). Alabama and LSU should be okay and Arkansas is somewhat unknown. Ole Miss gets the edge mainly based on Snead’s success last year.

Non-Measurables (gut feel)

Now this is where I normally get into trouble. Non-measurables include emotions. Emotions lead to collective brain farts, like the Auburn guy on Rivals Radio that is trying to convince himself that by working hard and having better team discipline the Tigers/War Chickens/Plainsmen will just be good enough to win. Sorry – stay in your hole.

Here is the thumb nail summary:

Everything seemed to fall in place for Alabama last year. That doesn’t normally happen two years in a row. They will have to earn it this year.

LSU had the opposite type of year. Nothing seemed to go right, so you would think that we are due for a few breaks. Personally, I think we used them all up in 2007; we can’t count on the football Gods this year. Also, our schedule is brutal. If we didn’t have to play Bama, Ole Miss and Georgia on the road and host a Florida team that Alabama and Ole Miss dodge, we might have a chance. Alas, that is too much to overcome.

Arkansas is the team that might just sneak up and steal the whole thing. Mallet can throw the ball and they have a bunch of players coming back. But there is an old saying; everything back from nothing is still nothing.

So that leaves Ole Miss. Everyone, including myself, expects them to get caught reading their clippings and gag on themselves. But I got a feeling (emotions) that this is going to be Nutts year to show the world just how good of coach he is.

My call:

1. Ole Miss
2. LSU
3. Alabama
4. Arkansas
5. Auburn
6. Miss State