It has been quite a while since I last wrote on this blog. To be honest I have be spending the past three weeks doing missionary work in Santiago, Chile.
Wednesday, December 08, 2010
Wrapping Up the LSU Season and Bowl Thoughts
Monday, August 09, 2010
Les Miles is Sitting on a Loaded Pistol
College football will be upon us in less than a month and like any other year predictions are abundant. We all think we know how our team is going to do because of x, y and z. We feel our opinion is worth listening to because of our involvement in alumni relations, high school football or just because we have been watching football for most our lives. The story is always the same. So without further ado I thought I would give my breakdown on the 2010 LSU Tigers football team. After all why would you not want to listen to my insightful predictions for the upcoming season?
For the first three years at LSU Les Miles was on cloud nine. He won a national championship and compiled an impressive 34-6 record that included going 19-5 in the SEC. But in the past two seasons that record has dipped to a disappointing 17-9, including 8-8 in the SEC. How did it get so bad so fast in Baton Rouge for Les Miles? And why should there be hope for the Tigers this coming year?
Whatever improvements LSU made in 2009 from 2008 (an improved defense), there was equally as many setbacks (lack of an offense). The question is does LSU have the mindset and skills to improve and avoid another season of disappointment? The answer is yes and here are the main reasons.
1. UNDERDOG ROLE
For the past however many months the national media has taken turns either a) ragging on Les Miles b) criticizing Jordan Jefferson's potential or c) highlighting why LSU can not sniff Alabama's jock strap. (Do not get me wrong last year I spent a lot of time yelling at Miles and Jefferson.) These criticisms on the football program have in turn lit a fire under Les Miles and the LSU football team. When your program is nationally dissed (4th in the SEC West at the SEC Media Day) a team comes together. It has happened to LSU teams in the past. Add in the fact that Les Miles has his back against the wall and I have to believe things will turn around. There's a reason he won 34 games in his first three seasons. Sure he had "Saban's players," but he still won 34 games. Look at Miami Florida. Randy Shannon has a heck of a lot of talent, but his teams have really never done much. Bottom line: Miles was a winner in the beginning. That was not a fluke. He needs to find that magic he use to show on the sidelines.
2. QUARTERBACK GROWTH
Since Ryan Perrilloux's debacle LSU has not had a strong quarterback behind center. Far too often inexperience has gotten the best of the LSU quarterback. Despite Jordan Jefferson's shortcomings in 2009 (held on to the ball too long and accuracy issues) he still showed moments of promise. Say what you want about the guy he still finished with a respectable 17 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Add in the fact that he was the 5th most efficient passer in the SEC you can see why I truly believe he will drastically improve this year. Jefferson was one of the youngest quarterbacks to be starting in SEC history. When Russell and Flynn came to LSU they were not thrown onto the field. They had time to slowly understand the offense and better yet go on the field when they were ready. Jefferson did not have this and I feel like this is all too commonly overlooked. With a year under his belt I feel LSU's offense will be much more in sync because of Jefferson's maturity and the emergence of a much better offensive line.
3. REVAMPED OFFENSIVE LINE
In 2009 the LSU offensive line was surprisingly one of the worst in the SEC. Better yet, it cemented an LSU offense that ranked 107th nationally. This is the biggest question mark and the biggest thing I am most concerned with. Last year's offensive line for the majority of the season stunk. It never got into a groove so two things suffered immensely: first, with no offensive line there is no run game. Meaning LSU fans got very familiar with 2nd and 9s instead of 2nd and 4s. That's crucial when you really break that down. With a young quarterback, whether or not it will be a scoring drive starts with progress on first down. And more times than not on first down for LSU in 2009 they ran the ball. And more times than not LSU did a poor job moving the ball. Secondly, with a poor offensive line and an inexperienced quarterback you are probably going to have a) a quarterback on the run a lot and b) an inept offense that struggled the majority of the season. Both of these were true. This aspect can not be overlooked. Even a slightly improved Jefferson and a more in sync offensive line will greatly benefit the LSU offense. I am confident in both.
4. BILLY GONZALES'S IMPACT
Former Florida wide receivers coach Billy Gonzales is one of brightest spots this past offseason for the Tigers. Gonzales is widely known for the successes he had with utilizing Percy Harvin. I think what excites me the most is how LSU has a player of equal mold to Harvin - Russell Shepard. Shepard is a serious threat every time he steps on the field. The spring game for the Tigers was not the greatest showcase of LSU's potential, but the one bright spot for Shepard's ability to consistently get open. Add in the fact LSU has Reuben Randle and Terrence Toliver and you can see why I expect to see great improvement from the wide receivers group. Gonzales is one of the best in the business at getting his players to maximize their potential meaning the three-headed monster of Shepard, Randle and Tolliver should cause havoc for any team in the SEC.
5. PETERSON ISLAND AND MO
Patrick Peterson is not a human. He is not a normal person like you or me. Patrick Peterson is a freak. He origins are as mysterious as Captain America or Superman. Peterson is 6'1" 222 pounds. Take that in for second. LSU has a cornerback that is 222 pounds and he has not lost any speed. Like I said he is a freak. (Just to give you an idea Darrelle Revis is 5'11" 198 pounds.) Some people have suggested moving him to safety. My question - why? With Peterson being the shutdown corner he is that's one less side of the field LSU has to worry about, better yet if gives them options. The other corner is Morris "Mo" Claiborne. Claiborne has been having an impressive camp. With two shutdown corners LSU will be able to blitz that much more and that makes all the difference. One of the issues with LSU's defense last year was the struggles LSU's cornerbacks (other than Peterson) had throughout the season. One of the glaring problems was how LSU gave up big 3rd downs. Having one superb cornerback and another up and coming cornerback gives Chavis options on third downs.
6. BACK TO BASICS DEFENSIVE LINE
The offensive line stunk last year and the defensive line stunk. I would go as far as to say the defensive line was worse. It's like dominoes when you really put together LSU's 2009 problems. Without an effective pass rush the run defense was lousy therefore the rest of the defense had to play that much better. (Now keep in mind LSU's defense was not terrible last year, but they were not spectacular. Still improvements need to be made. These are the hopeful solutions.) Of all the young players getting on the field this season, I am most excited about the defensive line. There's Sam Montgomery, Chris Davenport and Josh Downs to name a few. Add in senior Drake Nevis and there's reason to believe this unit can rebound.
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Playing the underdog role, Jefferson's quarterback growth, a revamped offensive line, Billy Gonzales's impact, Peterson Island and Mo and a back to basics defensive line are the six reasons I am optimistic about LSU's 2010 season. Now believe me I'm well aware of the past struggles and I am well aware of the uneasiness about LSU football this season. I know things could get worse for LSU in a hurry, but I look at Miles and I look at Jefferson and I think had LSU won that game against Ole Miss or Penn State, just one more game, all the talk would of been how Miles got his 4th season of at least 10 wins. Now granted things did get bad last season, but it's interesting to note how drastically things switch. If there is one thing that has the biggest impact on the LSU's season I think, no question, it would have to be Jordan Jefferson's maturity. How that guy changed his game this offseason will be directly correlated with LSU's final record. (By the way I read Jefferson watched highlights of every single play he was involved in last year. He took notes on what he did wrong. And at SEC Media Day one of the most impressive things spectators commented on was the maturity of Jordan Jefferson. Whether or not a good interview translates into a good quarterback remains to be seen.)
I think after seeing Les Miles's most recent press conference where the Mad Hatter was displaying a childish grin I have to agree with my dad. Les Miles is seating on a loaded pistol and no one knows it.
Geaux Tigers!
SEASON PREDICTIONS
Here is my call. I am sick of thinking I will jinx the team. The Saints won the Super Bowl so the word jinx is dead...I think.
North Carolina
This is the first game of the season meaning the team will be rusty. I am willing to bet that 95% of my age group is going to be cursing the TV if LSU does not score within 38 seconds into the game. This will be mostly a defensive game. North Carolina has a good defense, so does LSU. The biggest factor in this game will be LSU's ability to neutralize UNC's amazing defensive line. Look for the Tigers to pull out a close one.
LSU 19-17
@ Vanderbilt
The Tigers will travel to Vanderbilt to take on a Commodore team that just lost their head coach about a month ago. Vandy will be down this year despite returning quarterback Larry Smith. The LSU run game will be pivotal in this game. I think Michael Ford and Richard Murphy propel LSU to blow up this game.
LSU 27-7
Mississippi State
Last year the Bulldogs really thought they had LSU. Unfortunately they could not get six inches. What a shame. 2010's game will not be a blowout. I do not expect LSU to struggle in their home opener. It will be a close game at the half, but the second half the Tigers put on the after burners. Jefferson and Shepard cause havoc while The Freak bulldozes a quarterback.
LSU 31-14
West Virginia
It's been a while since some Tiger Stadium magic has taken place. WV comes ready to play and jumps on LSU. Jefferson plays a terrific game. LSU's defense struggles against Noel Devine. WV has a fourth quarter lead, but Jefferson leads the Tigers back for a thrilling victory.
LSU 34-30
Tennessee
A week after a dramatic win against the Mountaineers, LSU gets jumped on by a struggling Vols team. Tigers defense makes some key second half stops that swings the momentum. Shepard is again a huge factor and a nightmare for defenses.
LSU 27-21
@Florida
The Swamp has not been kind to LSU in recent years, unfortunately I do not see that changing. For the third week in a row LSU finds itself in a hole, but the Tigers are unable to shake a 14-0 deficit. The offensive line struggles in the trenches against the Gators. Also, the run game does not get going and Jefferson has to lead the team to victory on his own. Not the Tigers day.
Florida 34-16
McNeese State
LSU demolishes yet another Louisiana team.
LSU 44-14
@Auburn
LSU travels to Hell to play the Auburn Tigers. Game comes down to the four quarter where Auburn scores a late touchdown to crush LSU's dreams. Tigers play very well in defeat.
Auburn 24-21
Alabama
The entire state of Louisiana eagerly awaits for the Game of the Year. Les Miles and his crew do push ups in broken glass to get pumped for the game. Unlike 2008, Bama's last time in Tiger Stadium, LSU does not have a pick-six quarterback leading the team. Jefferson gets LSU out to a fast start. Russell Shepard and Reuben Randle cause trouble for Alabama all afternoon. Alabama makes a fourth quarter rally only to be denied by Chavis's defense. Score one for the good guys!
LSU 28-23
Louisiana-Monroe
Like I said, another Louisiana blowout. Yawn.
LSU 35-7
Ole Miss
LSU redeems themselves after back-to-back years of falling to the Rebels. The running game allows LSU's play action to get a couple scores. Even Masoli can not rally the Rebels after an impressive third quarter showing by the Tigers.
LSU 31-19
@Arkansas
The Razorbacks get redemption after last year's dramatic overtime loss. LSU defense fails to make a key stop towards the end of the game. Jefferson has a solid performance, Peterson has a great game, but is not enough to rally the Tigers.
Arkansas 28-20
Final call: 9-3
Even with only a one game improvement from 2009 I still think LSU makes great strides in 2010.
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
The Ultimate 2009 SEC West Breakdown

Earlier this summer I posted my thoughts on the SEC East. I stated I would give my analysis for the SEC West. Well, finally I have an SEC West prediction for the 2009 season, but this time things are a bit different. Instead of me breaking down the SEC West I let my dad spread his thoughts.
Enjoy.
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I need a fix. It has been seven months since I’ve watched a live LSU football game and my patience is waning. National recruiting day anticipation and the post signing euphoria carried me through February and into early March. March Madness was good until LSU drew North Carolina in the second round. College baseball season was great – hey, we won a National Championship, but that was over in late June. The final blow was discovering that someone (hopefully inadvertently) erased the Georgia Tech Game on the DVR. I am left with my imagination.
Lately, my only relief comes from listening to Bill King of Rivals Radio analyze who has the best three deep roster. Beside that bit of fascinating analysis, we get an hourly call from an Auburn or Tennessee hopeful asking Bill to confirm that they could really be better than all of the prognosticators are saying. “We had a great spring, our conditioning is going well and our coaches have great discipline – can we win 8 or 9 games?” Nope, sorry boys, you are in the darkness. Just about every fan base in the NCAA has experienced it at some point, certainly we have at LSU. You are going to be thrown into the pits, forced to grind and gnash your teeth.
Twenty-four days and a wake up and it will be over for me. LSU kicks off on the West Coast with Washington, Ty Willingham’s latest debacle. Meanwhile, I have decided to do a bit of prognosticating myself. Here is my shot at handicapping the SEC West. Being an engineer, I decided to take an analytical approach. Not that it will make my projections any more accurate as the one thing I have learned over the years is that predicting sporting outcomes is a crapshoot. You throw it down and walk away. Here it goes.
I have broken my analysis into five categories, each weighted relatively evenly. This includes the
1. athletic quality of the roster using historical recruiting as the benchmark,
2. quality of the coaching staff,
3. returning players in leadership positions,
4. key difference makers or star quality athletes,
5. and finally -non-measureables (things I just have a feel for).
Strength of Recruiting
There are always exceptions, but you can get a pretty good feel for the quality of school’s roster by simply analyzing their historical recruiting success. If you look at the top schools in the country, determined by ranking services such as ESPN/USA Today, you will find a fairly close correlation with the school’s success; and the recent recruiting success as determined by ranking services. It is that simple. Sure, the recruiting rankings often miss on perspective athletes and they often under or over estimate a team’s overall position, but they are generally very closely aligned to how a team performs and finishes. For purposes of this evaluation, I just picked one service and looked at the rankings over the past five years. This is what I found utilizing the Rivals website rankings from 2004 until 2009:
Rivals Recruiting Ranking by Year
2004: Alabama (15), LSU (2), Auburn (21), Ole Miss (30), Arkansas (22), Miss. State (62)
2005: Alabama (18), LSU (22), Auburn (13), Ole Miss (30), Arkansas (24), Miss. State (33)
2006: Alabama (11), LSU (7), Auburn (10), Ole Miss (16), Arkansas (26), Miss. State (44)
2007: Alabama (10), LSU (4), Auburn (7), Ole Miss (27), Arkansas (31), Miss. State (39)
2008: Alabama (1), LSU (11), Auburn (20), Ole Miss (29), Arkansas (36), Miss. State (44)
2009: Alabama (1), LSU (2), Auburn (19), Ole Miss (18), Arkansas (16), Miss. State (25)
Based upon this analysis, you would have to say that Alabama and LSU likely have the most athletic rosters. Auburn should be third followed by Ole Miss and Arkansas in a coin toss and Mississippi State bringing up the rear. I think this is fairly accurate, but I believe Ole Miss is understated in their positional rankings. Either last year was a total anomaly or they have recruited far better than Rivals predicted because they appeared to be as athletic as any team they faced in 2008, and then some.
Quality of Coaching Staff
From my standpoint, ranking the coaching staffs is really subjective. I don’t have access to anything other than my TV Set and the Internet. I don’t get to attend practices, talk to people who are in and around these campuses, so I am really going by what I read and personal observation. There are many that feel Saban is the best coach in the SEC West, and perhaps the country. Bobby Petrino is looked upon as an offensive guru. Neither one of them did too well when they ventured into the NFL so perhaps they are not what they are made up to be. Houston Nutt has a great reputation for doing more with less. Les Miles is not viewed positively by the press and the other two guys are not even on the radar yet.
So I am left with my own book of thoughts. In my opinion, I think Saban is a great program manager and perhaps excels above everyone else when it comes to transformational leadership. He is a Lee Iacocca type when it comes to building and changing culture, but he is prone to error like all humans. He pulled a few stinkers in Baton Rouge in his previous gig and I am guessing those same mishaps are in store for the Bama Nation. Houston Nutt has never been to the mountain. It seems to me he has not proven anything yet other than he is a smart guy that can motivate a team through stretches. Miles did a great job in his first three years in Baton Rouge, but last year was not his best effort, for whatever reason.
From my limited view, I just don’t see any differentiation here. Any one of these four coaches can do it given the right set of circumstances and players. I am calling this a wash.
Returning Players in Leadership Roles
Senior leadership is always a huge factor in success. No one wins without chemistry and chemistry usually starts with your seniors. No senior leadership inevitably leads to under performance and high quality leadership results in the opposite.
Last year’s LSU team, from the outside at least, seemed to be lacking in this area. We had some great players and good guys, but I don’t think they established the culture and mindset that was needed for success. This year’s seniors may be exceptional. Getting Ciron Black, Charles Scott and Brandon Lafell to postpone the NFL was obviously a boost. These are the guys that are going to keep the team together. Alabama lost a few great leaders, guys that made a difference last year. Who knows if they can be replaced? Ole Miss has most of their roster back, so I would have to assume they will be okay in that category.
My call here goes with LSU. I know I am a homer, but I think that guys like Ciron Black just don’t come along very often.
Difference Makers in Key Roles
As was reinforced to the LSU faithful last year – no quarterback, no team. It is that simple. You don’t have to be an all American, but you have to show up and make the plays when it counts. John Parker Wilson was seemingly nothing special athletically, but that guy made all of the plays throughout the year. Javon Snead is just flat out good. He made a couple of throws in the LSU game that were world class, and he showed up when the bell rang.
How important was Alabama’s nose tackle. Nobody could move that guy off his line and hence, nobody could consistently run on the Tide. Take away Cody and Alabama is a different team.
Both Cody and Snead are back, but new play makers will emerge in the SEC. Whatever team has the most playmakers will have an advantage. Based upon what I saw last year, I give this edge to Ole Miss and Snead (along with Hardy and the rest of that roster). Alabama and LSU should be okay and Arkansas is somewhat unknown. Ole Miss gets the edge mainly based on Snead’s success last year.
Non-Measurables (gut feel)
Now this is where I normally get into trouble. Non-measurables include emotions. Emotions lead to collective brain farts, like the Auburn guy on Rivals Radio that is trying to convince himself that by working hard and having better team discipline the Tigers/War Chickens/Plainsmen will just be good enough to win. Sorry – stay in your hole.
Here is the thumb nail summary:
Everything seemed to fall in place for Alabama last year. That doesn’t normally happen two years in a row. They will have to earn it this year.
LSU had the opposite type of year. Nothing seemed to go right, so you would think that we are due for a few breaks. Personally, I think we used them all up in 2007; we can’t count on the football Gods this year. Also, our schedule is brutal. If we didn’t have to play Bama, Ole Miss and Georgia on the road and host a Florida team that Alabama and Ole Miss dodge, we might have a chance. Alas, that is too much to overcome.
Arkansas is the team that might just sneak up and steal the whole thing. Mallet can throw the ball and they have a bunch of players coming back. But there is an old saying; everything back from nothing is still nothing.
So that leaves Ole Miss. Everyone, including myself, expects them to get caught reading their clippings and gag on themselves. But I got a feeling (emotions) that this is going to be Nutts year to show the world just how good of coach he is.
My call:
1. Ole Miss
2. LSU
3. Alabama
4. Arkansas
5. Auburn
6. Miss State
Friday, December 14, 2007
Awful Similarities
Within the past week big news came out again from the Atlanta Falcons' organization. But for once he was not dealing with Michael Vick.
Bobby Petrino the first year head coach for the 'Cons darted back to the college ranks. Petrino recently accepted a position to be the head coach at the University of Arkansas. Petrino's exit from Atlanta was nothing short of pathetic and sickening, but if anything it is, oh so, very familiar with another incident of this magnitude one year ago.
Remember the fellow Nick Saban and his cowardly exit from the Miami Dolphins? How can you!?
Well Petrino and Saban are two coaches who were both successes in the NCAA, but both failures in the NFL. Lets not forget the word "quitter" either.
To add to the sting these two fellows created you have to emphasize the manner in which they left their NFL jobs. Saban repeatedly denied any interest in Alabama and then went there after proclaiming 2 years earlier his "deep" love for LSU. Petrino left Atlanta after the owner had called him the CEO of the team. Oh, but Petrino did really leave like a "champ". He did not even have a final talk with the players. Just fled like a fool.
(Let me state there are similarities, but I do find Saban's more disgusting considering he a) repeatedly lied about the situation and b) went to LSU's arch rival. That's excusable.)
There was something my dad told me about Saban last year that I have to say goes along with Mr. Petrino as well.
"When someone does what he did it will stick with him. People do not forget that."
Indeed they won't. Indeed they won't.
By the way I can not wait for the Georgia/Arkansas game next year. I'm pretty sure a lot of Bulldog fans are also Atlanta Falcon fans as well. I can hear the blood boiling already.
