Looking Back on My College Football Predictions

Making predictions has never been my best asset, but still it remains something I hope to get better at. With that said, I would like to look back at the predictions I made at the beginning of this 2009 college football season.

Then: Florida WILL go undefeated and they WILL win the National Championship.
(I keep looking and when I really evaluate this team I do not see them tripping up once.)

Now: It really is strange when you think about how the Tebow Show is over. I was confident the Gators would prevail over the Crimson Tide. All summer and year there was so much certainty that the Gators were going to win the title. I bought into it. Sure the offense was stagnant in some games, but the team kept winning. Tebow would not fall. And then it happened. Alabama hit Florida in the mouth like no one has ever done against Tebow. In 60 minutes of football it was all over.


Then: By the end of October the California Bears WILL no longer be in the dark horse National Championship talk.
(I have been hearing all summer how this Cal team is going to make some noise. I do not see this year being any different from the other years we, the fans, were lead to believe this.)

Now: I could not have been more right about this prediction. I saw this coming from 10 miles away. At 3-0 the Golden Bears traveled to Oregon only to lose 42-3. The next week the team lost their homecoming to USC 30-3. Poof! Two games, two losses, National Title talk dead. After all the hype California finished the season with 4 losses and an invite to the Poinsetta Bowl to play Utah. Ouch.


Then: Ohio State WILL beat USC on September 12th.
(Matt Barkley is 18 years old. He turns 19 on September 8th. He has never started a college game. I do not think in his second game of the year he will be able to pull out a victory in front of 100,000+ screaming fans. I do not care how good he was in high school and I'm sure he will have a fine college career. But at the end of the day I do not think with such little experience he will be able to beat the Buckeyes.)

Now: They had them! Ohio State had USC! The crowd was there, the team was there, but the Buckeyes could not stop freshman Matt Barkley from driving down the field and pulling out an 18-15 victory. Even worse, Terrelle Pryor, the proclaimed savior, turned the ball over on downs with a minute left. Wasn't Pryor brought in to win games like these?


Then: Baylor behind the nation's best kept secret, quarterback Robert Griffin, will pull off a big upset this year, but Baylor will not going bowling this year.

Now: Poor Baylor. Had Griffin not torn his ACL in week three against Northwestern State this team would of gone bowling. Griffin was already putting up some ridiculous numbers. Baylor was 2-1 when Griffin was playing, when he was not they were 1-7. Let's hope Griffin comes back strong in 2010.


Then: Miami Florida's head coach Randy Shannon will be fired at the end of the year as his team will again under perform. The Hurricanes will finish with 5 losses.

Now: What do I really know? Geez I never thought Miami would start the season the way they did. So what if the Hurricanes got screwed out of a quality bowl game, Shannon's crew still finished 9-3. More importantly The U is on the rise behind Jacory Harris.


Then: Michigan will not lose more than 4 games.

Now: Another "great" call by me. I thought I was on track when Michigan started 4-0, including a win over a "good" Notre Dame team. In the team's final 8 games the Wolverines went 1-7. RichRod has one more season to right the ship or he will be unemployed. It's still appalling to think that UM is 8-16 in the past two years! Despite that awful record, freshman QB Tate Forcier does look like the real deal.


Then: Once again Texas will just sneak by Oklahoma State. Much like the Fiesta Bowl, Colt McCoy will lead Texas for a late score at the end of the game to beat the Cowboys.

Now: How am I so bad at predicting? This game was never close. Texas destroyed the Cowboys 41-14. My only salvation is knowing it was only 3-0 Texas after the first quarter. That's not bad, right?


Then: Oklahoma beats Texas. Oklahoma loses two games. Texas goes to the Big 12 Championship and then the National Championship.

Now: This was about a half and half. I was right about Texas winning the Big 12 and heading to the National Championship, but on the other side I was completely wrong. Oklahoma lost five games (not two) and the Sooners did not beat Texas (it was close, but they lost 16-13). Keep in mind there's no telling how this Oklahoma team does if Sam Bradford doesn't get injured the first week.


Then: Notre Dame will be getting a BCS bowl after they finish the season with only 2 losses. And yes they will lose to USC again.

Now: You know when a bad car crash happens you tell yourself not to look, but you still do? That's EXACTLY what these predictions are like. They are so off, but at the same time I can not stop reading them. Short and sweet - I was right about ND falling to USC yet again, but the whole BCS talk is disturbing to think about it. After the USC loss the wheels really started coming off the wagon. The four game losing streak to end the season (Navy, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Stanford) was pathetic. But because of the team's lousy play they were "rewarded" with the hidden gem of the college football world - Brian Kelly.


Then: Alabama will lose at the most 2 games during the regular season. Ole Miss will lose only one when the Bengals come into town. Ole Miss will go to the SEC Championship Game.

Now: FAIL! Alabama never lost a game and the LSU did not beat Ole Miss. Even better Ole Miss never went to the SEC Championship Game. Wow these predictions only get worse. Also I am guilty, I did start to believe Ole Miss was legit.


Then: LSU will have their swagger back this year, but a very hard schedule will keep them out of the SEC Championship Game.

Now: Meh. A tough schedule was a big reason LSU did not qualify for the SEC Championship along with a number of other things such as erratic playcalling, an erroneous missed interception against Alabama, and the ultimate brain fart against Ole Miss. But with all that said LSU could of found itself in a BCS bowl had Les Miles not gone brain dead in the waning seconds against Ole Miss. Okay new subject that still gets me mad.


Then: Rutgers will not win the Big East. Pittsburgh will take the conference and the coveted BCS bowl bid.

Now: I was so close! Rutgers never lived up to expectations so that whole "BCS berth" talk was flushed down the toilet early on. As far as Pittsburgh goes they had a 21 point lead at home on an undefeated Cincinnati team. Even worse they had a six point lead with a minute half left. The one time the defense needed to step up they failed.


Then: West Virginia will have 5 losses this year. Speculation will begin about whether Bill Stewart is the right guy for the job.

Now: This one surprised me. Really thought WV would take a step back with Pat White gone. The team only has three losses going into a Gator Bowl match up with Florida State. If the Mountineers can pull out a victory a 10 win season will silence some critics...for now.


Then: Alabama will beat Virginia Tech 31-14. Tech has a defense, but the offense will not be able to do anything against Alabama's defense.

Now: This game was a lot closer than I expected. It was not until the 4th quarter that the Tide pulled away. Once again Alabama used the first game of the season to send a message.


Then: Texas A&M has another losing season and surprisingly gives Mike Sherman one more year.

Now: A&M finished with a 6-6 record meaning they barely missed out on having another losing season. The Aggies showed great potential against the Longhorns when they nearly pulled off the upset of the year. Having QB Jerrod Johnson back along with freshman running back Christine Michael will give some fans a reason to give A&M a sleeper label for 2010.


Then: Dan LeFevour. He's what some would call the "poor man's Tim Tebow." He will lead Central Michigan to the MAC Title and to go along with that Houston will win the Conference-USA.

Now: Just when I thought I had no hope I pull this one out! LeFevour continued to set records his entire senior year. To cement a great career LeFevour led CMU to a MAC Title over Ohio. On the other hand I was awfully close with Houston, but East Carolina beat them in the CUSA Title game 38-32. So close!


Then: Sorry Archie Griffin, but you no longer have the record by yourself. Tim Tebow will win the Heisman trophy.

Now: At the beginning of the year it seemed destined for the trophy to go to either Sam Bradford or Tim Tebow, instead Alabama's Mark Ingram stole the show. Ingram won the closest race ever by beating Stanford's Toby Gerhart by only 28 points.

Then: Oregon looked pretty impressive in their bowl victory against Oklahoma State so I will have to take the Ducks. Look for Oregon to end Boise State's 49-game regular-season home winning streak. It will be decided by one score.

Now: You know what would of been funny? Had I predicted a fight at the end of the game. Sadly I didn't. Even worse I was dead wrong about this prediction. Boise State dominated Oregon 19-8.

Enjoy the bowl season, and yes, I too am very excited for the San Diego County Credit Union Bowl. And by the way how far away are we from having a very awkward bowl name? For instance, the Viagara Bowl, the Good Housekeeping Magazine Bowl, the Playtex Bowl, or (drum roll)the Beggin' Strips Bowl.

Trust me we are not that far away!

College Football: Concerns, Issues After Week 2

Two weeks into the season and we already have back to back weeks were a top 5 team have fallen. I can only imagine what the rest of the season holds. Here's what I learned from week 2.

Florida 56 Troy 6: The Gators' D has given up a total of 9 points in two games, but we have yet to see them go against a quality opponent. Florida's second warm up game gave us nothing new about the Gators. UF will take on Tennessee who is not what I would call "a quality opponent" yet.

Houston 45 Oklahoma State 35: One week after defeating the Georgia Bulldogs, Oklahoma State gets beaten at home by the Houston Cougars. This upset is not all that incredible. Houston likes to throw the ball a lot with quarterback Casey Keenum, the 2008 Conference USA offensive player of the year. I am sure Oklahoma State has a better defense than last year, but at the end of the day this game shows us that their pass defense is still lacking. What happens when Oklahoma State goes up against other Big 12 gunslingers like Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, and Taylor Potts? The remarkable thing is Oklahoma State went down 24-7 rallied to take the lead 28-24 then again at 35-31.

Michigan 38 Notre Dame 34: This was a game that has been marked for months. The losing team was sure to have a head coach who's job security would be damaged. Coming into this game I did not look at Michigan with the same underdog status as most of the country labeled them as. (Mainly because RichRod's offense came into being against Western Michigan in week 1.) Did I honestly think UM would win? No. Overall, very good game and even though ND lost they still have no reason to think this season is over. In the fourth quarter UM held a 31-20 lead that was quickly turned into a 34-31 ND lead with 5:13 left. NOW HERE IS WHERE THINGS GOT INTERESTING. Michigan can not get the ball moving and punts the ball to Notre Dame. The ball is downed with 3:25 left in the game. On first down ND runs for 13 yards for a first down. Now it's first down and ND runs a another play up the middle and is stopped for one yard. UM then uses it's first time out. There are 2:29 left in the game and it is 2nd and 9. On the next two plays ND throws the ball and both are incomplete. UM gets the ball back on a punt on there 43 yard line with 2:19 left and 2 timeouts. And it is right here where you have to ask Coach Weis what was he thinking. If you are going to make that gamble where you throw it instead of opting to run the ball and burn there timeouts you better execute the play otherwise you are going to get ripped apart. Here's the thing, let's say Weis runs the ball on 2nd and 3rd down and both times UM calls a timeout. Well at least when they would get the ball back Michigan would have no timeouts. Weis gambled and lost and now he must pay.

And by the way I was very impressed with Tate Forcier. In his first start he threw for 240 and ran for 70. 310 total yards in one start? Not bad at all.

USC 18 Ohio State 15: This was the game of the week. USC was supposed to run over OSU, but for much of the game OSU was in control. Even after Terrelle Pryor's first play interception, OSU was still able to take control of the game. OSU had the largest crowd in The Shoe's history, they neutralized Joe McKnight, they made Matt Barkley look average, and they had a 5 point lead, 15-10, with 7 minutes to go in the fourth. Yet in the end Ohio State lost a heartbreaker. Behind Matt Barkley, USC had a 6:10 minute drive that was oh so similar to Juice Williams of Illinois's 8 minute drive back in 2007. Even though USC broke OSU's back with that 6:10 drive, the Bucks still had a shot with 1:05 left. After a return to the OSU 36 yard line the offense sputtered and OSU fell again. I can only help but think when is Pryor going to have his moment? Sure it was a difficult situation, down by 3 with 1 minute left, but these are things Pryor is supposed to do. He was brought in as the next Vince Young. This was a situation in which he was supposed to excel. A guy like Pryor is supposed to fall in this sort of sentence. "The game was lost and any normal quarterback would of lost, but we had Pryor so we won." Bottom line when is Pryor going to have his moment?

LSU 23 Vanderbilt 9: There's a lot to be said about the LSU game. There's good and bad news. First the bad, or I should say UNSATISFYING news. LSU's offense is not at the place we all thought they would be. Many times on Saturday LSU went three and out. This was frustrating by all means because our playcalling seemed to be so bland. All summer there was talk about how Gary Crowton was going to really pump up the LSU offense. I, as well as all LSU fans, was excited to see The Wizard (Crowton) do his magic, but we have not seen that yet. I understand QB Jordan Jefferson is young, what I do not understand is why we ran the same old running back dive up the middle on three or four consecutive possessions. Each time LSU was getting no yardage whatsoever. What needed to take place for it to be realized that a running back dive on first down was not working? Also, LSU had 5 wide receivers many times, but very rarely threw the ball deep.

Here are some things to keep in mind if you are one of the people upset by LSU leading Vandy by the mere score of 16-9 in the fourth quarter. Imagine if one of LSU's three field goals resulted in a touchdown. Instead of 16-9, we are looking at 20-9 and a final score of 27-9. The main thing is the offense is still a work in progress but at the same time if they could just punch it in the endzone a little more than LSU would not be in the situation they were Saturday - up by only 7 in the fourth.

Now for the good news. In week 1 LSU's defense gave up an appalling 471 yards of offense to the Washington Huskies. A lot of skepticism came out as to whether or not new defensive coordinator John Chavis was the man for the job. The performance against UW was nothing to be proud of, but I was convinced Chavis would get it under control. After all he is not a first year coach, he has been doing this for years, and he's been good at it.

That all changed this past Saturday against Vanderbilt. The LSU defense gave up a mere 210 yards. Period. Vandy had one scoring drive that would of ended had LB Kelvin Sheppard not dropped an interception that would of surely been six points. Chad Jones, as well as the rest of the team, was tackling a lot better. Also, the defensive line started to really get into it. How about the play by Drake Nevis and Al Woods? And what about cornerback Patrick Peterson? He literally shuts down his side of the field. I am excited to see this unit continue to grow throughout the season.

As of now LSU can compete with Alabama, Ole Miss, and Georgia mainly because of our defense's play Saturday. Again I might be jumping the gun on that at this moment.

Florida? Lots of improvement needs to be shown on offense if we want the sky to fall October 10th, but never say never.

Things I was WRONG about...

Unless UCLA has one heck of a defense, UT's offense is not that good. I guess in the end it was just the fact they were playing Western Kentucky. In there home stadium the Vols lost 19-15 to a young, inexperienced UCLA team. Vol QB Jonathon Crompton's performance was dreadful to say the least. He was 13 of 26 for 93 yards and 3 interceptions. Touchdowns? Zero. And oh yeah he lost a fumble as well.

Auburn. I was kept thinking dark times where upon the War Eagles. They did a lousy job of hiring a coach and the SEC West was far too loaded for them to make any noise. I know it's only been 2 games, but rest assured a 49-24 over Mississippi State is something to raise your eyebrow on. Look I know it's early on, but I am ust saying do not be surprised if Auburn starts making some noise.

Robert Horry: The Infamous, Average Ballplayer

The NBA Playoffs are amongst yet again, and much like every other year the constant suckling of Robert Horry carries on. The life or death stories of Horry's incredible postseason shots are once again told to large audiences. People gasp at the man who now has 7 NBA titles.

But, it's all overhyped. All blown out of proportion because when you get right down to it. When you really look at Robert Horry's career you see Big Shot Rob was nothing more than an average player on some very good teams. In my mind, I see him as a leach.

In 16 seasons Horry's career numbers are about 7.0 points and 4.8 rebounds per game, and yes of course we have to add in his staggering playoff numbers as well where Horry has averaged 9 points and 6 rebounds.

Listen Robert Horry has been an incredible clutch shooter in playoff time, but please let's cease from putting him in the same paragraph as playoff legends Micheal Jordan, Larry Bird, Jerry West, and so on. Horry's name should probably be mentioned alongside someone such as Bill Laimbeer.

If that.

Simply put, Horry made a living on jumping on teams on the rise. He was drafted by the Houston Rockets and where he stayed for 4 season. It was here Horry was his most most dominant. (10.6 points, 5.5 rebounds in the regular season; 12 points and 6.3 rebounds in the postseason) Horry won 2 titles with Hakeem and Co. Following a brief stop in Phoenix, Horry latched on in LA with the Lakers where he helped win 3 titles. When that title run was over Horry jumped ship and struck land in San Antonio where he has already won two titles.

After leaving Houston that impact on games was seen less and less by Robert Horry. From the 1996-97 season to present day, stats for Horry are around 6 points and 5 rebounds per game, with a slight increase in playoff times.

Pretty impressive, yet I sit here waiting for the long time vet to make his next move. I mean in a couple of years Boston may be his next stop. His next destination to win 2 titles and further embellish his career and yet again let us, the fans, hear his name thrown around with legends such as Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.

Horry will be remembered for his countless big shots, but remember, Big Shot Rob was never the focal point on any of his championship teams. He was never the dominant player, the guy who was the focal point of a team. It seems to me the media loves embracing the fact that there is a basketball player in the league who has 7 rings. That simple fact drives all of this. It is the underlining reason Horry's career is held in such high regard when in all honesty Robert Horry is nothing more than the most infamous, average ballplayer we have ever seen.